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Testing for statistical and market efficiency when forecast errors are non-normal: the NFL betting market revisted

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>12/2000
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of Forecasting
Issue number7
Volume19
Number of pages12
Pages (from-to)575-586
Publication statusPublished
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

This paper examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. Previous econometric work on the subject has been based on least squares estimators, and has been marred by non-normal errors, which have cast doubt on standard hypothesis testing procedures. It is found that the negative binomial distribution provides a good description of points scored in NFL football games, but no significant departures from market efficiency were discovered.