Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Testing for statistical and market efficiency when forecast errors are non-normal: the NFL betting market revisted
AU - Cain, M.
AU - Law, D.
AU - Peel, David
PY - 2000/12
Y1 - 2000/12
N2 - This paper examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. Previous econometric work on the subject has been based on least squares estimators, and has been marred by non-normal errors, which have cast doubt on standard hypothesis testing procedures. It is found that the negative binomial distribution provides a good description of points scored in NFL football games, but no significant departures from market efficiency were discovered.
AB - This paper examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. Previous econometric work on the subject has been based on least squares estimators, and has been marred by non-normal errors, which have cast doubt on standard hypothesis testing procedures. It is found that the negative binomial distribution provides a good description of points scored in NFL football games, but no significant departures from market efficiency were discovered.
U2 - 10.1002/1099-131X(200012)19:7<575::AID-FOR765>3.0.CO;2-U
DO - 10.1002/1099-131X(200012)19:7<575::AID-FOR765>3.0.CO;2-U
M3 - Journal article
VL - 19
SP - 575
EP - 586
JO - Journal of Forecasting
JF - Journal of Forecasting
SN - 0277-6693
IS - 7
ER -