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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The effects of test scores and truancy on youth unemployment and inactivity
T2 - A simultaneous equations approach
AU - Bradley, Steven
AU - Crouchley, Robert
PY - 2020/10/1
Y1 - 2020/10/1
N2 - We analyse the relationships between test scores, truancy and labour market outcomes for youths. Our econometric approach enables us to disentangle the observable direct and indirect effects of truancy and test scores on the risk of unemployment or ‘Not in Education, Employment or Training’ (NEET) from their unobserved effects. Using data for England and Wales, we show that models of youth unemployment and NEET that ignore the correlation between the unobservable determinants of test scores and truancy will lead to misleading inference about the strength of their effects. Truancy has an indirect observed effect on labour market outcomes via its effect on test scores, and a weak direct effect. The unobserved component of truancy has a direct effect on labour market outcomes. Test scores have a direct effect on those outcomes, but also mitigate the detrimental effects of truancy. Our analysis raises important implications for education policy.
AB - We analyse the relationships between test scores, truancy and labour market outcomes for youths. Our econometric approach enables us to disentangle the observable direct and indirect effects of truancy and test scores on the risk of unemployment or ‘Not in Education, Employment or Training’ (NEET) from their unobserved effects. Using data for England and Wales, we show that models of youth unemployment and NEET that ignore the correlation between the unobservable determinants of test scores and truancy will lead to misleading inference about the strength of their effects. Truancy has an indirect observed effect on labour market outcomes via its effect on test scores, and a weak direct effect. The unobserved component of truancy has a direct effect on labour market outcomes. Test scores have a direct effect on those outcomes, but also mitigate the detrimental effects of truancy. Our analysis raises important implications for education policy.
KW - Test scores,
KW - truancy and
KW - labour market outcomes
KW - trivariate models.
U2 - 10.1007/s00181-019-01691-8
DO - 10.1007/s00181-019-01691-8
M3 - Journal article
VL - 59
SP - 1799
EP - 1831
JO - Empirical Economics
JF - Empirical Economics
SN - 0377-7332
ER -