Rights statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 12/05/2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02626667.2015.1091460
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Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - The seventh facet of uncertainty
T2 - wrong assumptions, unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems
AU - Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
AU - Brandimarte, Luigi
AU - Beven, Keith John
N1 - This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 12/05/2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02626667.2015.1091460
PY - 2016/9
Y1 - 2016/9
N2 - The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.
AB - The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.
KW - Epistemic uncertainty
KW - socio-hydrology
KW - black swans
KW - disaster risk reduction
KW - resilience
U2 - 10.1080/02626667.2015.1091460
DO - 10.1080/02626667.2015.1091460
M3 - Journal article
VL - 61
SP - 1748
EP - 1758
JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal
JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal
SN - 0262-6667
IS - 9
ER -