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    Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Atmospheric Environment. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Atmospheric Environment, 213 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.07.001

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300 years of tropospheric ozone changes using CMIP6 scenarios with a parameterised approach

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300 years of tropospheric ozone changes using CMIP6 scenarios with a parameterised approach. / Turnock, Steven T.; Wild, Oliver; Sellar, Alistair et al.
In: Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 213, 15.09.2019, p. 686-698.

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Turnock ST, Wild O, Sellar A, O'Connor FM. 300 years of tropospheric ozone changes using CMIP6 scenarios with a parameterised approach. Atmospheric Environment. 2019 Sept 15;213:686-698. Epub 2019 Jul 2. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.07.001

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Turnock, Steven T. ; Wild, Oliver ; Sellar, Alistair et al. / 300 years of tropospheric ozone changes using CMIP6 scenarios with a parameterised approach. In: Atmospheric Environment. 2019 ; Vol. 213. pp. 686-698.

Bibtex

@article{459604e961014d77adc956776fe1f56d,
title = "300 years of tropospheric ozone changes using CMIP6 scenarios with a parameterised approach",
abstract = "Tropospheric Ozone (O3) is both an air pollutant and a greenhouse gas. Predicting changes to O3 is therefore important for both air quality and near-term climate forcing. It is computationally expensive to predict changes in tropospheric O3 from every possible future scenario in composition climate models like those used in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here we apply the different emission pathways used in CMIP6 with a model based on source-receptor relationships for tropospheric O3 to predict historical and future changes in O3 and its radiative forcing over a 300 year period (1750–2050). Changes in regional precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds) and global methane abundance are used to quantify the impact on tropospheric O3 globally and across 16 regions, neglecting any impact from changes in climate. We predict large increases in global surface O3 (+8 ppbv) and O3 radiative forcing (+0.3 W m−2) over the industrial period. Nine different Shared Socio-economic Pathways are used to assess future changes in O3. Scenarios involving weak air pollutant controls and climate mitigation are inadequate in limiting the future degradation of surface O3 air quality and enhancement of near-term climate warming over all regions. Middle-of-the-road and strong mitigation scenarios reduce both surface O3 concentrations and O3 radiative forcing by up to 5 ppbv and 0.17 W m−2 globally, providing benefits to future air quality and near-term climate forcing. Sensitivity experiments show that targeting mitigation measures towards reducing global methane abundances could yield additional benefits for both surface O3 air quality and near-term climate forcing. The parameterisation provides a valuable tool for rapidly assessing a large range of future emission pathways that involve differing degrees of air pollutant and climate mitigation. The calculated range of possible responses in tropospheric O3 from these scenarios can be used to inform other modelling studies in CMIP6.",
keywords = "Ozone, Air quality, Climate, Radiative forcing, CMIP6",
author = "Turnock, {Steven T.} and Oliver Wild and Alistair Sellar and O'Connor, {Fiona M.}",
note = "This is the author{\textquoteright}s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Atmospheric Environment. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Atmospheric Environment, 213 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.07.001",
year = "2019",
month = sep,
day = "15",
doi = "10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.07.001",
language = "English",
volume = "213",
pages = "686--698",
journal = "Atmospheric Environment",
issn = "1352-2310",
publisher = "PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - 300 years of tropospheric ozone changes using CMIP6 scenarios with a parameterised approach

AU - Turnock, Steven T.

AU - Wild, Oliver

AU - Sellar, Alistair

AU - O'Connor, Fiona M.

N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Atmospheric Environment. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Atmospheric Environment, 213 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.07.001

PY - 2019/9/15

Y1 - 2019/9/15

N2 - Tropospheric Ozone (O3) is both an air pollutant and a greenhouse gas. Predicting changes to O3 is therefore important for both air quality and near-term climate forcing. It is computationally expensive to predict changes in tropospheric O3 from every possible future scenario in composition climate models like those used in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here we apply the different emission pathways used in CMIP6 with a model based on source-receptor relationships for tropospheric O3 to predict historical and future changes in O3 and its radiative forcing over a 300 year period (1750–2050). Changes in regional precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds) and global methane abundance are used to quantify the impact on tropospheric O3 globally and across 16 regions, neglecting any impact from changes in climate. We predict large increases in global surface O3 (+8 ppbv) and O3 radiative forcing (+0.3 W m−2) over the industrial period. Nine different Shared Socio-economic Pathways are used to assess future changes in O3. Scenarios involving weak air pollutant controls and climate mitigation are inadequate in limiting the future degradation of surface O3 air quality and enhancement of near-term climate warming over all regions. Middle-of-the-road and strong mitigation scenarios reduce both surface O3 concentrations and O3 radiative forcing by up to 5 ppbv and 0.17 W m−2 globally, providing benefits to future air quality and near-term climate forcing. Sensitivity experiments show that targeting mitigation measures towards reducing global methane abundances could yield additional benefits for both surface O3 air quality and near-term climate forcing. The parameterisation provides a valuable tool for rapidly assessing a large range of future emission pathways that involve differing degrees of air pollutant and climate mitigation. The calculated range of possible responses in tropospheric O3 from these scenarios can be used to inform other modelling studies in CMIP6.

AB - Tropospheric Ozone (O3) is both an air pollutant and a greenhouse gas. Predicting changes to O3 is therefore important for both air quality and near-term climate forcing. It is computationally expensive to predict changes in tropospheric O3 from every possible future scenario in composition climate models like those used in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here we apply the different emission pathways used in CMIP6 with a model based on source-receptor relationships for tropospheric O3 to predict historical and future changes in O3 and its radiative forcing over a 300 year period (1750–2050). Changes in regional precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds) and global methane abundance are used to quantify the impact on tropospheric O3 globally and across 16 regions, neglecting any impact from changes in climate. We predict large increases in global surface O3 (+8 ppbv) and O3 radiative forcing (+0.3 W m−2) over the industrial period. Nine different Shared Socio-economic Pathways are used to assess future changes in O3. Scenarios involving weak air pollutant controls and climate mitigation are inadequate in limiting the future degradation of surface O3 air quality and enhancement of near-term climate warming over all regions. Middle-of-the-road and strong mitigation scenarios reduce both surface O3 concentrations and O3 radiative forcing by up to 5 ppbv and 0.17 W m−2 globally, providing benefits to future air quality and near-term climate forcing. Sensitivity experiments show that targeting mitigation measures towards reducing global methane abundances could yield additional benefits for both surface O3 air quality and near-term climate forcing. The parameterisation provides a valuable tool for rapidly assessing a large range of future emission pathways that involve differing degrees of air pollutant and climate mitigation. The calculated range of possible responses in tropospheric O3 from these scenarios can be used to inform other modelling studies in CMIP6.

KW - Ozone

KW - Air quality

KW - Climate

KW - Radiative forcing

KW - CMIP6

U2 - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.07.001

DO - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.07.001

M3 - Journal article

VL - 213

SP - 686

EP - 698

JO - Atmospheric Environment

JF - Atmospheric Environment

SN - 1352-2310

ER -