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A brief history of information and disinformation in hydrological data and the impact on the evaluation of hydrological models

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A brief history of information and disinformation in hydrological data and the impact on the evaluation of hydrological models. / Beven, Keith.
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 69, No. 5, 10.04.2024, p. 519-527.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Beven, K 2024, 'A brief history of information and disinformation in hydrological data and the impact on the evaluation of hydrological models', Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 69, no. 5, pp. 519-527. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2332616

APA

Beven, K. (2024). A brief history of information and disinformation in hydrological data and the impact on the evaluation of hydrological models. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 69(5), 519-527. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2332616

Vancouver

Beven K. A brief history of information and disinformation in hydrological data and the impact on the evaluation of hydrological models. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2024 Apr 10;69(5):519-527. Epub 2024 Mar 20. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2024.2332616

Author

Beven, Keith. / A brief history of information and disinformation in hydrological data and the impact on the evaluation of hydrological models. In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2024 ; Vol. 69, No. 5. pp. 519-527.

Bibtex

@article{c2e118dc98554b3c803e168b7d6c7a21,
title = "A brief history of information and disinformation in hydrological data and the impact on the evaluation of hydrological models",
abstract = "This paper considers what we know about the potential for disinformation in hydrological data when used for the evaluation of hydrological models. This will generally arise from epistemic uncertainties associated with hydrological observations, particularly from nonstationary or extrapolated rating curves for discharges, and poor rainfall and snowmelt information when interpolated over basin areas. Approaches based on information theory are not well suited to consideration of such epistemic uncertainties in model evaluation and an alternative approach based on setting limits of acceptability independent of any model runs is suggested. This allows for both the rejection of all models tried, and for acceptability of models across different model structures and parameter sets. The paper concludes with some suggestions for future research on defining disinformative data for both point and spatial observables, studying model failures, and defining new observations with a view to having the greatest impact on reducing model uncertainties.",
keywords = "digital twins, disinformation, information measures, model calibration, models of everywhere, uncertainty estimation",
author = "Keith Beven",
year = "2024",
month = apr,
day = "10",
doi = "10.1080/02626667.2024.2332616",
language = "English",
volume = "69",
pages = "519--527",
journal = "Hydrological Sciences Journal",
issn = "0262-6667",
publisher = "TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD",
number = "5",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A brief history of information and disinformation in hydrological data and the impact on the evaluation of hydrological models

AU - Beven, Keith

PY - 2024/4/10

Y1 - 2024/4/10

N2 - This paper considers what we know about the potential for disinformation in hydrological data when used for the evaluation of hydrological models. This will generally arise from epistemic uncertainties associated with hydrological observations, particularly from nonstationary or extrapolated rating curves for discharges, and poor rainfall and snowmelt information when interpolated over basin areas. Approaches based on information theory are not well suited to consideration of such epistemic uncertainties in model evaluation and an alternative approach based on setting limits of acceptability independent of any model runs is suggested. This allows for both the rejection of all models tried, and for acceptability of models across different model structures and parameter sets. The paper concludes with some suggestions for future research on defining disinformative data for both point and spatial observables, studying model failures, and defining new observations with a view to having the greatest impact on reducing model uncertainties.

AB - This paper considers what we know about the potential for disinformation in hydrological data when used for the evaluation of hydrological models. This will generally arise from epistemic uncertainties associated with hydrological observations, particularly from nonstationary or extrapolated rating curves for discharges, and poor rainfall and snowmelt information when interpolated over basin areas. Approaches based on information theory are not well suited to consideration of such epistemic uncertainties in model evaluation and an alternative approach based on setting limits of acceptability independent of any model runs is suggested. This allows for both the rejection of all models tried, and for acceptability of models across different model structures and parameter sets. The paper concludes with some suggestions for future research on defining disinformative data for both point and spatial observables, studying model failures, and defining new observations with a view to having the greatest impact on reducing model uncertainties.

KW - digital twins

KW - disinformation

KW - information measures

KW - model calibration

KW - models of everywhere

KW - uncertainty estimation

U2 - 10.1080/02626667.2024.2332616

DO - 10.1080/02626667.2024.2332616

M3 - Journal article

VL - 69

SP - 519

EP - 527

JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal

JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal

SN - 0262-6667

IS - 5

ER -