Research output: Working paper
Research output: Working paper
}
TY - UNPB
T1 - A dynamic programming approach to finding optimal pitcher substitution strategies in a baseball game
AU - Hirotsu, N
AU - Wright, M B
PY - 2003
Y1 - 2003
N2 - This paper proposes a method for identifying the optimal strategy for substituting pitchers in a baseball game played not under the Designated Hitter rule. Using a Markov Chain model we incorporate the effect of the defensive ability of pitchers using Earned Run Average (ERA) as a measure, and develop a dynamic programming formulation to evaluate the effect of pitcher substitution. The method is illustrated using a match based on the real line-ups of the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants in the National League of Major League Baseball. We show how this approach may help to determine when to make a substitution and how much the probability of winning increases if the optimal strategy is followed.
AB - This paper proposes a method for identifying the optimal strategy for substituting pitchers in a baseball game played not under the Designated Hitter rule. Using a Markov Chain model we incorporate the effect of the defensive ability of pitchers using Earned Run Average (ERA) as a measure, and develop a dynamic programming formulation to evaluate the effect of pitcher substitution. The method is illustrated using a match based on the real line-ups of the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants in the National League of Major League Baseball. We show how this approach may help to determine when to make a substitution and how much the probability of winning increases if the optimal strategy is followed.
M3 - Working paper
T3 - Management Science Working Paper Series
BT - A dynamic programming approach to finding optimal pitcher substitution strategies in a baseball game
PB - The Department of Management Science
CY - Lancaster University
ER -