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A future for small business?: prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning

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A future for small business? prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning. / Atherton, Andrew.
In: Futures, Vol. 37, No. 8, 10.2005, p. 777-794.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Atherton, A 2005, 'A future for small business? prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning', Futures, vol. 37, no. 8, pp. 777-794. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.002

APA

Atherton, A. (2005). A future for small business? prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning. Futures, 37(8), 777-794. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.002

Vancouver

Atherton A. A future for small business? prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning. Futures. 2005 Oct;37(8):777-794. Epub 2005 Mar 19. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.002

Author

Atherton, Andrew. / A future for small business? prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning. In: Futures. 2005 ; Vol. 37, No. 8. pp. 777-794.

Bibtex

@article{3991eeaa0eb3431caa70ad580b5fb901,
title = "A future for small business?: prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning",
abstract = "Scenarios represent future possibilities or descriptions of {\textquoteleft}what might be{\textquoteright}. This paper generates a series of possible futures based on an identified policy priority, namely the encouragement of increased levels of small business activity. Counterfactual thinking is used to challenge this policy objective and to formulate alternative possibilities. Specific consideration is made of the nature of the future economy in terms of business linkages and market integration, as are the likely strategic responses of businesses and government. Eight scenarios are developed based on these drivers of change in economic structure and business activity. Data on the world economy are then applied to 19 developed and developing economies to test the scenarios. How these {\textquoteleft}externally generated{\textquoteright} scenarios can be applied to and made relevant to businesses, and in particular smaller enterprises, is examined, as are the broader implications for the future nature and structure of economic activity.",
author = "Andrew Atherton",
year = "2005",
month = oct,
doi = "10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.002",
language = "English",
volume = "37",
pages = "777--794",
journal = "Futures",
issn = "0016-3287",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "8",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A future for small business?

T2 - prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning

AU - Atherton, Andrew

PY - 2005/10

Y1 - 2005/10

N2 - Scenarios represent future possibilities or descriptions of ‘what might be’. This paper generates a series of possible futures based on an identified policy priority, namely the encouragement of increased levels of small business activity. Counterfactual thinking is used to challenge this policy objective and to formulate alternative possibilities. Specific consideration is made of the nature of the future economy in terms of business linkages and market integration, as are the likely strategic responses of businesses and government. Eight scenarios are developed based on these drivers of change in economic structure and business activity. Data on the world economy are then applied to 19 developed and developing economies to test the scenarios. How these ‘externally generated’ scenarios can be applied to and made relevant to businesses, and in particular smaller enterprises, is examined, as are the broader implications for the future nature and structure of economic activity.

AB - Scenarios represent future possibilities or descriptions of ‘what might be’. This paper generates a series of possible futures based on an identified policy priority, namely the encouragement of increased levels of small business activity. Counterfactual thinking is used to challenge this policy objective and to formulate alternative possibilities. Specific consideration is made of the nature of the future economy in terms of business linkages and market integration, as are the likely strategic responses of businesses and government. Eight scenarios are developed based on these drivers of change in economic structure and business activity. Data on the world economy are then applied to 19 developed and developing economies to test the scenarios. How these ‘externally generated’ scenarios can be applied to and made relevant to businesses, and in particular smaller enterprises, is examined, as are the broader implications for the future nature and structure of economic activity.

U2 - 10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.002

DO - 10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.002

M3 - Journal article

VL - 37

SP - 777

EP - 794

JO - Futures

JF - Futures

SN - 0016-3287

IS - 8

ER -