Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > A Generalized Heterogeneous Autoregressive Mode...

Electronic data

  • SSRN-id3496804

    Rights statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Quantitative Finance on 02/06/2022, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/14697688.2022.2076606

    Accepted author manuscript, 1.75 MB, PDF document

    Available under license: CC BY-NC: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

Links

Text available via DOI:

View graph of relations

A Generalized Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model using the Market Index

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>31/08/2022
<mark>Journal</mark>Quantitative Finance
Issue number8
Volume22
Number of pages22
Pages (from-to)1513-1534
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date2/06/22
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel class of volatility forecasting models that incorporate market realized (co)variances and semi(co)variances within the framework of a heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model. Our empirical analysis shows statistically and economically significant forecasting gains. For our most parsimonious market-HAR specification, stock volatility forecasting is improved by 9.80% points. Using a mixed sampling frequency market-HAR variant with low (high) sampling frequency for the stock (market) improves forecasting by a further 6.90% points. Our paper also develops noise-robust estimators to facilitate the use of realized semi(co)variances at high sampling frequencies.

Bibliographic note

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Quantitative Finance on 02/06/2022, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/14697688.2022.2076606