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A projected decrease in lightning under climate change

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A projected decrease in lightning under climate change. / Finney, Declan L.; Doherty, Ruth. M.; Wild, Oliver et al.
In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, 12.02.2018, p. 210-213.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Finney, DL, Doherty, RM, Wild, O, Stevenson, DS, MacKenzie, IA & Blyth, AM 2018, 'A projected decrease in lightning under climate change', Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 210-213. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0072-6

APA

Finney, D. L., Doherty, R. M., Wild, O., Stevenson, D. S., MacKenzie, I. A., & Blyth, A. M. (2018). A projected decrease in lightning under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 8, 210-213. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0072-6

Vancouver

Finney DL, Doherty RM, Wild O, Stevenson DS, MacKenzie IA, Blyth AM. A projected decrease in lightning under climate change. Nature Climate Change. 2018 Feb 12;8:210-213. doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0072-6

Author

Finney, Declan L. ; Doherty, Ruth. M. ; Wild, Oliver et al. / A projected decrease in lightning under climate change. In: Nature Climate Change. 2018 ; Vol. 8. pp. 210-213.

Bibtex

@article{ea3d5e951b24434ca6ce11314f795b9c,
title = "A projected decrease in lightning under climate change",
abstract = "Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry1,2,3, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires4. Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century1,5,6,7, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging8. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach9, and a new upward cloud ice flux (IFLUX) approach10 that overcomes previous limitations. In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario. Differences are largest in the tropics, where most lightning occurs, with implications for the estimation of future changes in tropospheric ozone and methane, as well as differences in their radiative forcings. These results suggest that lightning schemes more closely related to cloud ice and microphysical processes are needed to robustly estimate future changes in lightning and atmospheric composition.",
keywords = "Lightning , Climate Change, Future, Ozone, Methane",
author = "Finney, {Declan L.} and Doherty, {Ruth. M.} and Oliver Wild and Stevenson, {David. S.} and MacKenzie, {Ian. A.} and Blyth, {Alan. M.}",
note = "{\textcopyright} 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.",
year = "2018",
month = feb,
day = "12",
doi = "10.1038/s41558-018-0072-6",
language = "English",
volume = "8",
pages = "210--213",
journal = "Nature Climate Change",
issn = "1758-678X",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A projected decrease in lightning under climate change

AU - Finney, Declan L.

AU - Doherty, Ruth. M.

AU - Wild, Oliver

AU - Stevenson, David. S.

AU - MacKenzie, Ian. A.

AU - Blyth, Alan. M.

N1 - © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.

PY - 2018/2/12

Y1 - 2018/2/12

N2 - Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry1,2,3, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires4. Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century1,5,6,7, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging8. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach9, and a new upward cloud ice flux (IFLUX) approach10 that overcomes previous limitations. In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario. Differences are largest in the tropics, where most lightning occurs, with implications for the estimation of future changes in tropospheric ozone and methane, as well as differences in their radiative forcings. These results suggest that lightning schemes more closely related to cloud ice and microphysical processes are needed to robustly estimate future changes in lightning and atmospheric composition.

AB - Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry1,2,3, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires4. Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century1,5,6,7, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging8. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach9, and a new upward cloud ice flux (IFLUX) approach10 that overcomes previous limitations. In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario. Differences are largest in the tropics, where most lightning occurs, with implications for the estimation of future changes in tropospheric ozone and methane, as well as differences in their radiative forcings. These results suggest that lightning schemes more closely related to cloud ice and microphysical processes are needed to robustly estimate future changes in lightning and atmospheric composition.

KW - Lightning

KW - Climate Change

KW - Future

KW - Ozone

KW - Methane

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-018-0072-6

DO - 10.1038/s41558-018-0072-6

M3 - Journal article

VL - 8

SP - 210

EP - 213

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

SN - 1758-678X

ER -