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A short history of philosophies of hydrological model evaluation and hypothesis testing

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A short history of philosophies of hydrological model evaluation and hypothesis testing. / Beven, Keith John.
In: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, Vol. 12, No. 1, e1761, 28.02.2025.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Review article › peer-review

Harvard

Beven, KJ 2025, 'A short history of philosophies of hydrological model evaluation and hypothesis testing', Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, vol. 12, no. 1, e1761. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1761

APA

Beven, K. J. (2025). A short history of philosophies of hydrological model evaluation and hypothesis testing. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 12(1), Article e1761. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1761

Vancouver

Beven KJ. A short history of philosophies of hydrological model evaluation and hypothesis testing. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water. 2025 Feb 28;12(1):e1761. Epub 2024 Oct 3. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1761

Author

Beven, Keith John. / A short history of philosophies of hydrological model evaluation and hypothesis testing. In: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water. 2025 ; Vol. 12, No. 1.

Bibtex

@article{c0cb5d3740de487e8b99b3b06382146a,
title = "A short history of philosophies of hydrological model evaluation and hypothesis testing",
abstract = "This historical review addresses the issues of the evaluation and testing of hydrological models, with a focus on rainfall–runoff models. After a discussion of the general philosophies of hydrological modeling, nine different philosophies of model evaluation are considered, focusing on the period of modeling on digital computers since the 1960s. In addition, some discursions to discuss the definitions of calibration and validation, how much data is needed for model calibration, equifinality and uncertainty, probabilities and possibilities, the evaluation of model ensembles, and model benchmarking. The paper finishes with a final discursion on the philosophical problem of induction. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Methods Science of Water > Hydrological Processes",
keywords = "model validation, GLUE limits of acceptability, Bayesian methods, uncertainty estimation methods, model calibration",
author = "Beven, {Keith John}",
year = "2025",
month = feb,
day = "28",
doi = "10.1002/wat2.1761",
language = "English",
volume = "12",
journal = "Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water",
issn = "2049-1948",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Inc.",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A short history of philosophies of hydrological model evaluation and hypothesis testing

AU - Beven, Keith John

PY - 2025/2/28

Y1 - 2025/2/28

N2 - This historical review addresses the issues of the evaluation and testing of hydrological models, with a focus on rainfall–runoff models. After a discussion of the general philosophies of hydrological modeling, nine different philosophies of model evaluation are considered, focusing on the period of modeling on digital computers since the 1960s. In addition, some discursions to discuss the definitions of calibration and validation, how much data is needed for model calibration, equifinality and uncertainty, probabilities and possibilities, the evaluation of model ensembles, and model benchmarking. The paper finishes with a final discursion on the philosophical problem of induction. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Methods Science of Water > Hydrological Processes

AB - This historical review addresses the issues of the evaluation and testing of hydrological models, with a focus on rainfall–runoff models. After a discussion of the general philosophies of hydrological modeling, nine different philosophies of model evaluation are considered, focusing on the period of modeling on digital computers since the 1960s. In addition, some discursions to discuss the definitions of calibration and validation, how much data is needed for model calibration, equifinality and uncertainty, probabilities and possibilities, the evaluation of model ensembles, and model benchmarking. The paper finishes with a final discursion on the philosophical problem of induction. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Methods Science of Water > Hydrological Processes

KW - model validation

KW - GLUE limits of acceptability

KW - Bayesian methods

KW - uncertainty estimation methods

KW - model calibration

U2 - 10.1002/wat2.1761

DO - 10.1002/wat2.1761

M3 - Review article

VL - 12

JO - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water

JF - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water

SN - 2049-1948

IS - 1

M1 - e1761

ER -