Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - An analysis of international tourism demand in Spain.
AU - Young, Peter C.
AU - Pedregal, Diego
PY - 1997/12
Y1 - 1997/12
N2 - Although the state-space, unobserved component approach to forecasting has many advantages, it must be applied carefully in practice and should not be used in an uncritical, ‘black box’ fashion. In particular, such an approach to the modelling and forecasting of Spanish tourism data is inappropriate and leads to misleading conclusions, particularly in relation to the uncritical selection and use of explanatory regression variables.
AB - Although the state-space, unobserved component approach to forecasting has many advantages, it must be applied carefully in practice and should not be used in an uncritical, ‘black box’ fashion. In particular, such an approach to the modelling and forecasting of Spanish tourism data is inappropriate and leads to misleading conclusions, particularly in relation to the uncritical selection and use of explanatory regression variables.
KW - Unobserved component models
KW - Structural models
KW - Data-based mechanistic modelling
KW - Tourism forecasting
KW - Nonlinear relationships
U2 - 10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00034-4
DO - 10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00034-4
M3 - Journal article
VL - 13
SP - 551
EP - 556
JO - International Journal of Forecasting
JF - International Journal of Forecasting
IS - 4
ER -