Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > An empirical investigation of combinations of e...

Research

Associated organisational unit

Links

Text available via DOI:

Keywords

View graph of relations

An empirical investigation of combinations of economic forecasts

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Published

Standard

An empirical investigation of combinations of economic forecasts. / Holden, K.; Peel, David.
In: Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, No. 4, 10.1986, p. 229-242.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Holden, K & Peel, D 1986, 'An empirical investigation of combinations of economic forecasts', Journal of Forecasting, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 229-242. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980050404

APA

Holden, K., & Peel, D. (1986). An empirical investigation of combinations of economic forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 5(4), 229-242. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980050404

Vancouver

Holden K, Peel D. An empirical investigation of combinations of economic forecasts. Journal of Forecasting. 1986 Oct;5(4):229-242. doi: 10.1002/for.3980050404

Author

Holden, K. ; Peel, David. / An empirical investigation of combinations of economic forecasts. In: Journal of Forecasting. 1986 ; Vol. 5, No. 4. pp. 229-242.

Bibtex

@article{3c7a22864c9b44a3a7337ee3e0ff8b84,
title = "An empirical investigation of combinations of economic forecasts",
abstract = "This paper examines the effects of combining three econometric and three times-series forecasts of growth and inflation in the U.K. If forecasts are unbiased then a combination exploiting this fact will be more efficient than an unrestricted combination. Ex post econometric forecasts may be biased but ex ante they are unbiased. The results of the study are that a restricted linear combination of the econometric forecasts is superior to an unrestricted combination and also to the unweighted mean of the forecasts. However, it is not preferred to the best of the individual forecasts.",
keywords = "Combining forecasts, Econometric forecasts , Regression , Linear constraints",
author = "K. Holden and David Peel",
year = "1986",
month = oct,
doi = "10.1002/for.3980050404",
language = "English",
volume = "5",
pages = "229--242",
journal = "Journal of Forecasting",
issn = "0277-6693",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - An empirical investigation of combinations of economic forecasts

AU - Holden, K.

AU - Peel, David

PY - 1986/10

Y1 - 1986/10

N2 - This paper examines the effects of combining three econometric and three times-series forecasts of growth and inflation in the U.K. If forecasts are unbiased then a combination exploiting this fact will be more efficient than an unrestricted combination. Ex post econometric forecasts may be biased but ex ante they are unbiased. The results of the study are that a restricted linear combination of the econometric forecasts is superior to an unrestricted combination and also to the unweighted mean of the forecasts. However, it is not preferred to the best of the individual forecasts.

AB - This paper examines the effects of combining three econometric and three times-series forecasts of growth and inflation in the U.K. If forecasts are unbiased then a combination exploiting this fact will be more efficient than an unrestricted combination. Ex post econometric forecasts may be biased but ex ante they are unbiased. The results of the study are that a restricted linear combination of the econometric forecasts is superior to an unrestricted combination and also to the unweighted mean of the forecasts. However, it is not preferred to the best of the individual forecasts.

KW - Combining forecasts

KW - Econometric forecasts

KW - Regression

KW - Linear constraints

U2 - 10.1002/for.3980050404

DO - 10.1002/for.3980050404

M3 - Journal article

VL - 5

SP - 229

EP - 242

JO - Journal of Forecasting

JF - Journal of Forecasting

SN - 0277-6693

IS - 4

ER -