Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - An unobserved component model for multi-rate forecasting of telephone call demand : the design of a forecasting support system.
AU - Tych, Wlodek
AU - Pedregal, Diego J.
AU - Young, Peter C.
AU - Davies, John
PY - 2002/10
Y1 - 2002/10
N2 - An Unobserved Components (UC) Model based on an enhanced version of the Dynamic Harmonic Regression model, including new multi-rate and modulated cycle procedures, is used to develop a customised package for forecasting and signal extraction applied to hourly telephone call numbers made to Barclaycard plc. service centres, with a forecasting horizon of up to several weeks in advance. The paper outlines both the methodological and algorithmic aspects of the modelling, forecasting and signal extraction procedures, including the design and implementation of forecasting support software with a specially designed Graphical User Interface within the ® computing environment. The forecasting performance is evaluated comprehensively in comparison with the well-known seasonal ARIMA approach.
AB - An Unobserved Components (UC) Model based on an enhanced version of the Dynamic Harmonic Regression model, including new multi-rate and modulated cycle procedures, is used to develop a customised package for forecasting and signal extraction applied to hourly telephone call numbers made to Barclaycard plc. service centres, with a forecasting horizon of up to several weeks in advance. The paper outlines both the methodological and algorithmic aspects of the modelling, forecasting and signal extraction procedures, including the design and implementation of forecasting support software with a specially designed Graphical User Interface within the ® computing environment. The forecasting performance is evaluated comprehensively in comparison with the well-known seasonal ARIMA approach.
KW - Telephone call forecasts
KW - Comparative forecasting performance
KW - Unobserved Component Models
KW - Kalman Filter
KW - Fixed Interval Smoothing
KW - Modulated cycles
KW - Multirate model
U2 - 10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00071-7
DO - 10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00071-7
M3 - Journal article
VL - 18
SP - 673
EP - 695
JO - International Journal of Forecasting
JF - International Journal of Forecasting
IS - 4
ER -