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Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations

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Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations. / Voulgarakis, A.; Naik, Vaishali; Lamarque, J. F. et al.
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , Vol. 13, No. 5, 05.03.2013, p. 2563-2587.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Voulgarakis, A, Naik, V, Lamarque, JF, Shindell, DT, Young, P, Prather, MJ, Wild, O, Field, RD, Bergmann, D, Cameron-Smith, P, Cionni, I, Collins, WJ, Dalsoren, SB, Doherty, RM, Eyring, V, Folberth, G, Horowitz, LW, Josse, B, MacKenzie, IA, Nagashima, T, Plummer, DA, Righi, M, Rumbold, S, Stevenson, DS, Strode, S, Sudo, K, Szopa, S & Zeng, G 2013, 'Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 2563-2587. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013

APA

Voulgarakis, A., Naik, V., Lamarque, J. F., Shindell, D. T., Young, P., Prather, M. J., Wild, O., Field, R. D., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Cionni, I., Collins, W. J., Dalsoren, S. B., Doherty, R. M., Eyring, V., Folberth, G., Horowitz, L. W., Josse, B., MacKenzie, I. A., ... Zeng, G. (2013). Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 13(5), 2563-2587. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013

Vancouver

Voulgarakis A, Naik V, Lamarque JF, Shindell DT, Young P, Prather MJ et al. Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics . 2013 Mar 5;13(5):2563-2587. doi: 10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013

Author

Voulgarakis, A. ; Naik, Vaishali ; Lamarque, J. F. et al. / Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations. In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics . 2013 ; Vol. 13, No. 5. pp. 2563-2587.

Bibtex

@article{8a83f8d6e855496cad3290510de017be,
title = "Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations",
abstract = "Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8±1.6 yr (9.3±0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5±9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5±10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33±0.13 yr K−1 , on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.",
keywords = "Atmospheric composition, Modelling, Methane lifetime, Oxidation, Future climate, ACCMIP",
author = "A. Voulgarakis and Vaishali Naik and Lamarque, {J. F.} and Shindell, {Drew T.} and Paul Young and Prather, {Michael J.} and Oliver Wild and Field, {R. D.} and D. Bergmann and Philip Cameron-Smith and I Cionni and Collins, {William J.} and Dalsoren, {Stig B} and Doherty, {R. M.} and V. Eyring and G. Folberth and Horowitz, {L. W.} and B Josse and MacKenzie, {Ian A.} and T Nagashima and Plummer, {David A} and M Righi and S Rumbold and Stevenson, {D. S.} and Sarah Strode and K. Sudo and Sophie Szopa and Guang Zeng",
note = "{\textcopyright} Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.",
year = "2013",
month = mar,
day = "5",
doi = "10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013",
language = "English",
volume = "13",
pages = "2563--2587",
journal = "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ",
issn = "1680-7316",
publisher = "Copernicus GmbH (Copernicus Publications) on behalf of the European Geosciences Union (EGU)",
number = "5",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations

AU - Voulgarakis, A.

AU - Naik, Vaishali

AU - Lamarque, J. F.

AU - Shindell, Drew T.

AU - Young, Paul

AU - Prather, Michael J.

AU - Wild, Oliver

AU - Field, R. D.

AU - Bergmann, D.

AU - Cameron-Smith, Philip

AU - Cionni, I

AU - Collins, William J.

AU - Dalsoren, Stig B

AU - Doherty, R. M.

AU - Eyring, V.

AU - Folberth, G.

AU - Horowitz, L. W.

AU - Josse, B

AU - MacKenzie, Ian A.

AU - Nagashima, T

AU - Plummer, David A

AU - Righi, M

AU - Rumbold, S

AU - Stevenson, D. S.

AU - Strode, Sarah

AU - Sudo, K.

AU - Szopa, Sophie

AU - Zeng, Guang

N1 - © Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

PY - 2013/3/5

Y1 - 2013/3/5

N2 - Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8±1.6 yr (9.3±0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5±9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5±10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33±0.13 yr K−1 , on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.

AB - Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8±1.6 yr (9.3±0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5±9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5±10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33±0.13 yr K−1 , on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.

KW - Atmospheric composition

KW - Modelling

KW - Methane lifetime

KW - Oxidation

KW - Future climate

KW - ACCMIP

U2 - 10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013

DO - 10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013

M3 - Journal article

VL - 13

SP - 2563

EP - 2587

JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

JF - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

SN - 1680-7316

IS - 5

ER -