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Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States?

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Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States? / DeLucia, E.H.; Chen, S.; Guan, K. et al.
In: Ecosphere, Vol. 10, No. 6, e02773, 30.06.2019.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

DeLucia, EH, Chen, S, Guan, K, Peng, B, Li, Y, Gomez-Casanovas, N, Kantola, IB, Bernacchi, CJ, Huang, Y, Long, SP & Ort, DR 2019, 'Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States?', Ecosphere, vol. 10, no. 6, e02773. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2773

APA

DeLucia, E. H., Chen, S., Guan, K., Peng, B., Li, Y., Gomez-Casanovas, N., Kantola, I. B., Bernacchi, C. J., Huang, Y., Long, S. P., & Ort, D. R. (2019). Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States? Ecosphere, 10(6), Article e02773. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2773

Vancouver

DeLucia EH, Chen S, Guan K, Peng B, Li Y, Gomez-Casanovas N et al. Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States? Ecosphere. 2019 Jun 30;10(6):e02773. Epub 2019 Jun 18. doi: 10.1002/ecs2.2773

Author

DeLucia, E.H. ; Chen, S. ; Guan, K. et al. / Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States?. In: Ecosphere. 2019 ; Vol. 10, No. 6.

Bibtex

@article{a9686f7843ba4fba982aa7bd4f062bd0,
title = "Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States?",
abstract = "While annual precipitation in much of the US Corn Belt is likely to remain constant, atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the driver of crop water loss (evapotranspiration; ET), is projected to increase from ~2.2 kPa today to ~2.7 kPa by mid-century primarily due to the temperature increase. Without irrigation, it has been hypothesized that the increase in VPD will create a ceiling to future increases in maize yields. We calculated current and future growing season ET based on biomass, water use efficiency, and the amount of yield these levels of ET would support for maize production in the Midwest USA. We assumed that the production of more grain will necessitate a proportional increase in the production of biomass, with a corresponding increase in ET. Here we show that as VPD increases, maintaining current maize yields (2013–2016) will require a large expansion of irrigation, greater than threefold, in areas currently supported by rain. The average predicted yield for the region of 244 ± 4 bushels/acre (15,316 ± 251 kg/ha) projected for 2050, assuming yield increases observed for the past 60 yr continue, would not be possible with projected increases in VPD, creating a water ceiling to maize yields. Substantial increases in maize yields and the production of high yielding grasses for bioenergy will require developing cultivars with greater water use efficiency, a trait that has not been a priority for breeders in the past. {\textcopyright} 2019 The Authors.",
keywords = "atmospheric vapor pressure deficit, climate change, crop yield, irrigation, water use efficiency",
author = "E.H. DeLucia and S. Chen and K. Guan and B. Peng and Y. Li and N. Gomez-Casanovas and I.B. Kantola and C.J. Bernacchi and Y. Huang and S.P. Long and D.R. Ort",
year = "2019",
month = jun,
day = "30",
doi = "10.1002/ecs2.2773",
language = "English",
volume = "10",
journal = "Ecosphere",
issn = "2150-8925",
publisher = "ECOLOGICAL SOC AMER",
number = "6",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States?

AU - DeLucia, E.H.

AU - Chen, S.

AU - Guan, K.

AU - Peng, B.

AU - Li, Y.

AU - Gomez-Casanovas, N.

AU - Kantola, I.B.

AU - Bernacchi, C.J.

AU - Huang, Y.

AU - Long, S.P.

AU - Ort, D.R.

PY - 2019/6/30

Y1 - 2019/6/30

N2 - While annual precipitation in much of the US Corn Belt is likely to remain constant, atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the driver of crop water loss (evapotranspiration; ET), is projected to increase from ~2.2 kPa today to ~2.7 kPa by mid-century primarily due to the temperature increase. Without irrigation, it has been hypothesized that the increase in VPD will create a ceiling to future increases in maize yields. We calculated current and future growing season ET based on biomass, water use efficiency, and the amount of yield these levels of ET would support for maize production in the Midwest USA. We assumed that the production of more grain will necessitate a proportional increase in the production of biomass, with a corresponding increase in ET. Here we show that as VPD increases, maintaining current maize yields (2013–2016) will require a large expansion of irrigation, greater than threefold, in areas currently supported by rain. The average predicted yield for the region of 244 ± 4 bushels/acre (15,316 ± 251 kg/ha) projected for 2050, assuming yield increases observed for the past 60 yr continue, would not be possible with projected increases in VPD, creating a water ceiling to maize yields. Substantial increases in maize yields and the production of high yielding grasses for bioenergy will require developing cultivars with greater water use efficiency, a trait that has not been a priority for breeders in the past. © 2019 The Authors.

AB - While annual precipitation in much of the US Corn Belt is likely to remain constant, atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the driver of crop water loss (evapotranspiration; ET), is projected to increase from ~2.2 kPa today to ~2.7 kPa by mid-century primarily due to the temperature increase. Without irrigation, it has been hypothesized that the increase in VPD will create a ceiling to future increases in maize yields. We calculated current and future growing season ET based on biomass, water use efficiency, and the amount of yield these levels of ET would support for maize production in the Midwest USA. We assumed that the production of more grain will necessitate a proportional increase in the production of biomass, with a corresponding increase in ET. Here we show that as VPD increases, maintaining current maize yields (2013–2016) will require a large expansion of irrigation, greater than threefold, in areas currently supported by rain. The average predicted yield for the region of 244 ± 4 bushels/acre (15,316 ± 251 kg/ha) projected for 2050, assuming yield increases observed for the past 60 yr continue, would not be possible with projected increases in VPD, creating a water ceiling to maize yields. Substantial increases in maize yields and the production of high yielding grasses for bioenergy will require developing cultivars with greater water use efficiency, a trait that has not been a priority for breeders in the past. © 2019 The Authors.

KW - atmospheric vapor pressure deficit

KW - climate change

KW - crop yield

KW - irrigation

KW - water use efficiency

U2 - 10.1002/ecs2.2773

DO - 10.1002/ecs2.2773

M3 - Journal article

VL - 10

JO - Ecosphere

JF - Ecosphere

SN - 2150-8925

IS - 6

M1 - e02773

ER -