Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso for VAR Shrinkage
AU - Gefang, Deborah
PY - 2014/1
Y1 - 2014/1
N2 - We develop a novel Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso (DAELasso) approach for VAR shrinkage. DAELasso achieves variable selection and coefficient shrinkage in a data-based manner. It deals constructively with explanatory variables which tend to be highly collinear by encouraging the grouping effect. In addition, it also allows for different degrees of shrinkage for different coefficients. Rewriting the multivariate Laplace distribution as a scale mixture, we establish closed-form conditional posteriors that can be drawn from a Gibbs sampler. An empirical analysis shows that the forecast results produced by DAELasso and its variants are comparable to those from other popular Bayesian methods, which provides further evidence that the forecast performances of large and medium sized Bayesian VARs are relatively robust to prior choices, and, in practice, simple Minnesota types of priors can be more attractive than their complex and well-designed alternatives.
AB - We develop a novel Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso (DAELasso) approach for VAR shrinkage. DAELasso achieves variable selection and coefficient shrinkage in a data-based manner. It deals constructively with explanatory variables which tend to be highly collinear by encouraging the grouping effect. In addition, it also allows for different degrees of shrinkage for different coefficients. Rewriting the multivariate Laplace distribution as a scale mixture, we establish closed-form conditional posteriors that can be drawn from a Gibbs sampler. An empirical analysis shows that the forecast results produced by DAELasso and its variants are comparable to those from other popular Bayesian methods, which provides further evidence that the forecast performances of large and medium sized Bayesian VARs are relatively robust to prior choices, and, in practice, simple Minnesota types of priors can be more attractive than their complex and well-designed alternatives.
KW - Bayesian
KW - DAELasso
KW - VAR
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.04.004
DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.04.004
M3 - Journal article
VL - 30
SP - 1
EP - 11
JO - International Journal of Forecasting
JF - International Journal of Forecasting
SN - 0169-2070
IS - 1
ER -