Rights statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Economic Systems Research on 09/01/2020, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09535314.2019.1707170
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Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Bayesian input–output table update using a benchmark LASSO prior
AU - Tsionas, Mike G.
N1 - This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Economic Systems Research on 09/01/2020, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09535314.2019.1707170
PY - 2020/7/2
Y1 - 2020/7/2
N2 - We propose updating a multiplier matrix subject to final demand and total output constraints, where the prior multiplier matrix is weighted against a LASSO prior. We update elements of the Leontief inverse, from which we can derive posterior densities of the entries in input-output tables. As the parameter estimates required by far exceed the available observations, many zero entries deliver a sparse tabulation. We address that problem with a new statistical model wherein we adopt a LASSO prior. We develop novel numerical techniques and perform a detailed Monte Carlo study to examine the performance of the new approach under different configurations of the input-output table. The new techniques are applied to a 196 ×196 U.S. input-output table for 2012.
AB - We propose updating a multiplier matrix subject to final demand and total output constraints, where the prior multiplier matrix is weighted against a LASSO prior. We update elements of the Leontief inverse, from which we can derive posterior densities of the entries in input-output tables. As the parameter estimates required by far exceed the available observations, many zero entries deliver a sparse tabulation. We address that problem with a new statistical model wherein we adopt a LASSO prior. We develop novel numerical techniques and perform a detailed Monte Carlo study to examine the performance of the new approach under different configurations of the input-output table. The new techniques are applied to a 196 ×196 U.S. input-output table for 2012.
KW - Input–output tables
KW - Bayesian inference
KW - Markov Chain Monte Carlo
KW - LASSO priors
U2 - 10.1080/09535314.2019.1707170
DO - 10.1080/09535314.2019.1707170
M3 - Journal article
VL - 32
SP - 413
EP - 427
JO - Economic Systems Research
JF - Economic Systems Research
IS - 3
ER -