TY - JOUR

T1 - Calibration and predictive uncertainty estimation of groundwater quality models

T2 - application to the Twin Lake tracer test

AU - Buckley, K. M.

AU - Binley, A. M.

AU - Beven, K. J.

PY - 1994/1/1

Y1 - 1994/1/1

N2 - We apply the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology to the prediction of solute contaminant transport by studying the simulation of the development of the tracer plume in the 1983 Twin Lake tracer test. We employ a random walk particle tracking model overlaid onto a finite-element solution of the flow field in a Monte-Carlo framework. Under the GLUE methodology each simulation is assigned an initial likelihood weight, based on the goodness-of-fit to the observed tracer cloud as it passes a monitor at an early stage in its development. These likelihoods are then used to provide confidence/uncertainty limits to predictions of the future development of the 'cloud'. (from Authors)

AB - We apply the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology to the prediction of solute contaminant transport by studying the simulation of the development of the tracer plume in the 1983 Twin Lake tracer test. We employ a random walk particle tracking model overlaid onto a finite-element solution of the flow field in a Monte-Carlo framework. Under the GLUE methodology each simulation is assigned an initial likelihood weight, based on the goodness-of-fit to the observed tracer cloud as it passes a monitor at an early stage in its development. These likelihoods are then used to provide confidence/uncertainty limits to predictions of the future development of the 'cloud'. (from Authors)

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85041150756

VL - 220

SP - 205

EP - 214

JO - Proceedings of Groundwater Quality Models 93

JF - Proceedings of Groundwater Quality Models 93

ER -