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Research output: Working paper
Research output: Working paper
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TY - UNPB
T1 - Candidate Competition and Voter Learning in the 2000-2012 US Presidential Primaries
AU - Deltas, George
AU - Polborn, Mattias K.
PY - 2018/7
Y1 - 2018/7
N2 - When candidates in primary elections are ideologically differentiated (e.g., conservatives and moderates in the Republican party), then candidates with similar positions affect each others’ vote shares more strongly than candidates with different ideological positions. We measure this effect in U.S. Presidential primaries and show that it is of first order importance. We also show that voterbeliefs about the candidates harden over the course of the primary, as manifested in the variability of candidate vote shares. We discuss models of sequential voting that cannot yield this pattern of results, and propose an explanation based on a model with horizontally and vertically differentiatedcandidates and incompletely informed voters. Consistent with the predictions of this model, we also show that, in more conservative states, low quality conservative candidates do better relative to high quality conservatives, and vice versa.
AB - When candidates in primary elections are ideologically differentiated (e.g., conservatives and moderates in the Republican party), then candidates with similar positions affect each others’ vote shares more strongly than candidates with different ideological positions. We measure this effect in U.S. Presidential primaries and show that it is of first order importance. We also show that voterbeliefs about the candidates harden over the course of the primary, as manifested in the variability of candidate vote shares. We discuss models of sequential voting that cannot yield this pattern of results, and propose an explanation based on a model with horizontally and vertically differentiatedcandidates and incompletely informed voters. Consistent with the predictions of this model, we also show that, in more conservative states, low quality conservative candidates do better relative to high quality conservatives, and vice versa.
KW - Voting
KW - primary elections
KW - simultaneous versus sequential elections
M3 - Working paper
T3 - Economics Working Papers Series
BT - Candidate Competition and Voter Learning in the 2000-2012 US Presidential Primaries
PB - Lancaster University, Department of Economics
CY - Lancaster
ER -