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Licence: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Causal Network Representations in Factor Investing
AU - Howard, Clint
AU - Lohre, Harald
AU - Mudde, Sebastiaan
PY - 2025/3/31
Y1 - 2025/3/31
N2 - This paper explores the application of causal discovery algorithms to factor investing, addressing recent criticisms of correlation‐based models. We create novel causal network representations of the S&P 500 universe and apply them to three investment scenarios. Our findings suggest that causal approaches can complement traditional methods in areas such as stock peer group identification, factor construction, and market timing. While causal networks offer new insights and sometimes outperform correlation‐based methods in terms of risk‐adjusted returns, they do not consistently surpass traditional approaches. The causal method though shows promise in identifying unique market relationships and potential hedging opportunities. However, its practical implementation presents challenges due to computational complexity and interpretation difficulties. Our study demonstrates the potential value of causal discovery in factor investing, while also identifying areas for further research and refinement.
AB - This paper explores the application of causal discovery algorithms to factor investing, addressing recent criticisms of correlation‐based models. We create novel causal network representations of the S&P 500 universe and apply them to three investment scenarios. Our findings suggest that causal approaches can complement traditional methods in areas such as stock peer group identification, factor construction, and market timing. While causal networks offer new insights and sometimes outperform correlation‐based methods in terms of risk‐adjusted returns, they do not consistently surpass traditional approaches. The causal method though shows promise in identifying unique market relationships and potential hedging opportunities. However, its practical implementation presents challenges due to computational complexity and interpretation difficulties. Our study demonstrates the potential value of causal discovery in factor investing, while also identifying areas for further research and refinement.
KW - financial networks
KW - asset pricing
KW - causal discovery
KW - factor investing
KW - market timing
U2 - 10.1002/isaf.70001
DO - 10.1002/isaf.70001
M3 - Journal article
VL - 32
JO - Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management
JF - Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management
SN - 1055-615X
IS - 1
M1 - e70001
ER -