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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict
AU - Mach, Katharine
AU - Kraan, Carolien
AU - Buhaug,
AU - Burke,
AU - Fearon,
AU - Field,
AU - Hendrix,
AU - O'Loughin,
AU - Maystadt, Jean-Francois
AU - Roessler,
AU - Schultz,
AU - von Uexkull,
PY - 2019/6/12
Y1 - 2019/6/12
N2 - Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.
AB - Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.
U2 - 10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6
DO - 10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6
M3 - Journal article
VL - 571
SP - 193
EP - 197
JO - Nature
JF - Nature
SN - 0028-0836
ER -