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Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK : more of the same?

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Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK : more of the same? / Wilby, Rob L.; Beven, Keith J.; Reynolds, N.
In: Hydrological Processes, Vol. 22, No. 14, 01.07.2008, p. 2511-2523.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Wilby, RL, Beven, KJ & Reynolds, N 2008, 'Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK : more of the same?', Hydrological Processes, vol. 22, no. 14, pp. 2511-2523. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6847

APA

Wilby, R. L., Beven, K. J., & Reynolds, N. (2008). Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK : more of the same? Hydrological Processes, 22(14), 2511-2523. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6847

Vancouver

Wilby RL, Beven KJ, Reynolds N. Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK : more of the same? Hydrological Processes. 2008 Jul 1;22(14):2511-2523. doi: 10.1002/hyp.6847

Author

Wilby, Rob L. ; Beven, Keith J. ; Reynolds, N. / Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK : more of the same?. In: Hydrological Processes. 2008 ; Vol. 22, No. 14. pp. 2511-2523.

Bibtex

@article{ca53dcb63d45458cb8c3765e86c27918,
title = "Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK : more of the same?",
abstract = "The potential impact of climate change on fluvial flooding is receiving considerable scientific and political interest thanks to evidence from climate model projections and a widely held belief that flood risk may be increasing at European levels. This review compares published work on historical trends in UK rainfall and river flow records with high-resolution regional climate change projections, and attempts to reconcile apparent differences between the two. Attention is focused on the techniques used for climate change detection and attribution, as well as the potential confounding effects of land-use change. International and domestic efforts to build adaptive capacity rest on improved quantification of uncertainty in flood risk at very local, catchment and regional scales. This will involve further research to better integrate climate and land-management interactions, to understand changes in the dependence between different flood generating mechanisms, and to improve the characterization and communication of uncertainty at all stages of analysis. Resources are also needed to ensure that latest, but still uncertain, science is presented in an appropriate form to underpin policy development and is translated into sensible guidance for practitioners.",
keywords = "climate change • flood risk • detection • land use • adaptation • uncertainty",
author = "Wilby, {Rob L.} and Beven, {Keith J.} and N. Reynolds",
year = "2008",
month = jul,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1002/hyp.6847",
language = "English",
volume = "22",
pages = "2511--2523",
journal = "Hydrological Processes",
issn = "0885-6087",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "14",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK : more of the same?

AU - Wilby, Rob L.

AU - Beven, Keith J.

AU - Reynolds, N.

PY - 2008/7/1

Y1 - 2008/7/1

N2 - The potential impact of climate change on fluvial flooding is receiving considerable scientific and political interest thanks to evidence from climate model projections and a widely held belief that flood risk may be increasing at European levels. This review compares published work on historical trends in UK rainfall and river flow records with high-resolution regional climate change projections, and attempts to reconcile apparent differences between the two. Attention is focused on the techniques used for climate change detection and attribution, as well as the potential confounding effects of land-use change. International and domestic efforts to build adaptive capacity rest on improved quantification of uncertainty in flood risk at very local, catchment and regional scales. This will involve further research to better integrate climate and land-management interactions, to understand changes in the dependence between different flood generating mechanisms, and to improve the characterization and communication of uncertainty at all stages of analysis. Resources are also needed to ensure that latest, but still uncertain, science is presented in an appropriate form to underpin policy development and is translated into sensible guidance for practitioners.

AB - The potential impact of climate change on fluvial flooding is receiving considerable scientific and political interest thanks to evidence from climate model projections and a widely held belief that flood risk may be increasing at European levels. This review compares published work on historical trends in UK rainfall and river flow records with high-resolution regional climate change projections, and attempts to reconcile apparent differences between the two. Attention is focused on the techniques used for climate change detection and attribution, as well as the potential confounding effects of land-use change. International and domestic efforts to build adaptive capacity rest on improved quantification of uncertainty in flood risk at very local, catchment and regional scales. This will involve further research to better integrate climate and land-management interactions, to understand changes in the dependence between different flood generating mechanisms, and to improve the characterization and communication of uncertainty at all stages of analysis. Resources are also needed to ensure that latest, but still uncertain, science is presented in an appropriate form to underpin policy development and is translated into sensible guidance for practitioners.

KW - climate change • flood risk • detection • land use • adaptation • uncertainty

U2 - 10.1002/hyp.6847

DO - 10.1002/hyp.6847

M3 - Journal article

VL - 22

SP - 2511

EP - 2523

JO - Hydrological Processes

JF - Hydrological Processes

SN - 0885-6087

IS - 14

ER -