TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil

AU - JOXLEIDE, M. DA COSTA-COUTINHO

AU - MÁRIO, AUGUSTO G. JARDIM

AU - LEONARDO, S. MIRANDA

AU - ANTONIO, ALBERTO JORGE F. CASTRO

PY - 2022/7/18

Y1 - 2022/7/18

N2 - This study estimated the potential effects of climate change on peripheral plant diversity by predicting the distribution of species from Cerrado of Northern Brazil. Ecological niche modeling was used to provide present and future projections of responses in terms of occurrence of ten woody species based on four algorithms and four future climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Potential refuge areas for conservation actions were identified, and evidence of the vulnerability of the flora was demonstrated based on the disparity between potential areas of climate stability amid current protected areas. The results suggested a lack of pattern between the scenarios and an idiosyncratic response of the species, indicating different impacts on plant communities and the existence of unequal stable alternative conditions, which could bring consequences to the ecological relationships and functionality of the floras. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, most species presented an expansion of potential occurrence areas, suppressing or cohabiting with species of adjacent biomes. Typically marginal plants were the most sensitive. Overlapping adequate habitats are concentrated in the NBC. The analysis of habitats in relation to anthropized areas and PAs demonstrate low future effectiveness in the protection of these savannas.

AB - This study estimated the potential effects of climate change on peripheral plant diversity by predicting the distribution of species from Cerrado of Northern Brazil. Ecological niche modeling was used to provide present and future projections of responses in terms of occurrence of ten woody species based on four algorithms and four future climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Potential refuge areas for conservation actions were identified, and evidence of the vulnerability of the flora was demonstrated based on the disparity between potential areas of climate stability amid current protected areas. The results suggested a lack of pattern between the scenarios and an idiosyncratic response of the species, indicating different impacts on plant communities and the existence of unequal stable alternative conditions, which could bring consequences to the ecological relationships and functionality of the floras. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, most species presented an expansion of potential occurrence areas, suppressing or cohabiting with species of adjacent biomes. Typically marginal plants were the most sensitive. Overlapping adequate habitats are concentrated in the NBC. The analysis of habitats in relation to anthropized areas and PAs demonstrate low future effectiveness in the protection of these savannas.

KW - biodiversity forecasting modeling

KW - ecological niche modeling

KW - refuge

KW - woody distribution

U2 - 10.1590/0001-3765202220210191

DO - 10.1590/0001-3765202220210191

M3 - Journal article

VL - 94

JO - Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências

JF - Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências

IS - 3

M1 - e20210191

ER -