Final published version
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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate‐induced distribution dynamics of Plebeia flavocincta, a stingless bee from Brazilian tropical dry forests
AU - Maia, Ulysses Madureira
AU - Miranda, Leonardo de Sousa
AU - Carvalho, Airton Torres
AU - Imperatriz‐Fonseca, Vera Lucia
AU - Oliveira, Guilherme Corrêa
AU - Giannini, Tereza Cristina
PY - 2020/9/27
Y1 - 2020/9/27
N2 - AimThe objective of this study is to estimate the current potential geographic distribution of Plebeia flavocincta and to evaluate the influence of climate on the dynamics of suitable habitat availability in the past and in the future.LocationNortheast region of Brazil and dry forest areas.MethodsThe habitat suitability modeling was based on two algorithms, two global circulation models, and six different scenarios. We used this tool to estimate the areas of occurrence in the past (Last Interglacial and Last Glacial Maximum), in the present, and in the future (years 2050 and 2070).ResultsAccording to the models, P. flavocincta had great dynamics in the availability of suitable habitats with periods of retraction and expansion of these areas in the past. Our results suggest that this taxon may benefit in terms of climate suitability gain in Northeast Brazil in the future. In addition, we identified high-altitude areas and the eastern coast as climatically stable.ConclusionThe information provided can be used by decision makers to support actions toward protecting and sustainably managing this taxon. Protection measures for this taxon are particularly important because this insect contributes to the local flora and, although our results indicate that the climate may favor this taxon, other factors can negatively affect it, such as high levels of habitat loss due to anthropogenic activities
AB - AimThe objective of this study is to estimate the current potential geographic distribution of Plebeia flavocincta and to evaluate the influence of climate on the dynamics of suitable habitat availability in the past and in the future.LocationNortheast region of Brazil and dry forest areas.MethodsThe habitat suitability modeling was based on two algorithms, two global circulation models, and six different scenarios. We used this tool to estimate the areas of occurrence in the past (Last Interglacial and Last Glacial Maximum), in the present, and in the future (years 2050 and 2070).ResultsAccording to the models, P. flavocincta had great dynamics in the availability of suitable habitats with periods of retraction and expansion of these areas in the past. Our results suggest that this taxon may benefit in terms of climate suitability gain in Northeast Brazil in the future. In addition, we identified high-altitude areas and the eastern coast as climatically stable.ConclusionThe information provided can be used by decision makers to support actions toward protecting and sustainably managing this taxon. Protection measures for this taxon are particularly important because this insect contributes to the local flora and, although our results indicate that the climate may favor this taxon, other factors can negatively affect it, such as high levels of habitat loss due to anthropogenic activities
KW - availability
KW - Caatinga
KW - expansion
KW - geographic distribution
KW - Meliponin
KW - pollinator
U2 - 10.1002/ece3.6674
DO - 10.1002/ece3.6674
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 33005369
VL - 10
SP - 10130
EP - 10138
JO - Ecology and Evolution
JF - Ecology and Evolution
SN - 2045-7758
IS - 18
ER -