TY - JOUR

T1 - Comments on the attribution of an intermittent demand estimator

AU - Syntetos, Aris A.

AU - Boylan, John

PY - 2006/1/1

Y1 - 2006/1/1

N2 - Gardner and Koehler (2005) recently commented on a paper by Willemain, Smart, and Schwarz (2004) pointing out, amongst other issues, some recent advancements on Croston's method (1972) that were not considered. In this commentary the authors misattributed a bias-corrected version of Croston's method to Eaves and Kingsman (2004). The method adjusts Croston's estimates by using a multiplicative factor of (1 − α / 2), where α is the demand interval smoothing constant. Eaves and Kingsman (2004) were the first authors to comment on this method. However, it was originally presented by Syntetos and Boylan (1998); it was subsequently included in the doctoral thesis of Syntetos (2001) and recently published by Syntetos and Boylan (2005). Croston's bias was identified in an earlier work ( Syntetos & Boylan, 2001). We do accept that any error may be explained by the sequence of our publications over the years, and we are indebted to Professor Gardner for giving the correct attribution in his address to the ISF in June 2005. We should be grateful if other researchers would also give the correct attribution of the identification of Croston's bias (Syntetos & Boylan, 2001) and the new bias-corrected method (Syntetos & Boylan, 2005).

AB - Gardner and Koehler (2005) recently commented on a paper by Willemain, Smart, and Schwarz (2004) pointing out, amongst other issues, some recent advancements on Croston's method (1972) that were not considered. In this commentary the authors misattributed a bias-corrected version of Croston's method to Eaves and Kingsman (2004). The method adjusts Croston's estimates by using a multiplicative factor of (1 − α / 2), where α is the demand interval smoothing constant. Eaves and Kingsman (2004) were the first authors to comment on this method. However, it was originally presented by Syntetos and Boylan (1998); it was subsequently included in the doctoral thesis of Syntetos (2001) and recently published by Syntetos and Boylan (2005). Croston's bias was identified in an earlier work ( Syntetos & Boylan, 2001). We do accept that any error may be explained by the sequence of our publications over the years, and we are indebted to Professor Gardner for giving the correct attribution in his address to the ISF in June 2005. We should be grateful if other researchers would also give the correct attribution of the identification of Croston's bias (Syntetos & Boylan, 2001) and the new bias-corrected method (Syntetos & Boylan, 2005).

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.09.001

DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.09.001

M3 - Journal article

VL - 22

SP - 201

EP - 201

JO - International Journal of Forecasting

JF - International Journal of Forecasting

SN - 0169-2070

IS - 1

ER -