Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Business Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Business Research, 78, 2017 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2017.04.016
Accepted author manuscript, 308 KB, PDF document
Available under license: CC BY-NC-ND: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation
T2 - using optimal or multiple aggregation levels?
AU - Kourentzes, Nikolaos
AU - Rostami-Tabar, Bahman
AU - Barrow, Devon
N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Business Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Business Research, 78, 2017 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2017.04.016
PY - 2017/9
Y1 - 2017/9
N2 - Recent advances have demonstrated the benefits of temporal aggregation for demand forecasting, including increased accuracy, improved stock control and reduced modelling uncertainty. With temporal aggregation a series is transformed, strengthening or attenuating different elements and thereby enabling better identification of the time series structure. Two different schools of thought have emerged. The first focuses on identifying a single optimal temporal aggregation level at which a forecasting model maximises its accuracy. In contrast, the second approach fits multiple models at multiple levels, each capable of capturing different features of the data. Both approaches have their merits, but so far they have been investigated in isolation. We compare and contrast them from a theoretical and an empirical perspective, discussing the merits of each, comparing the realised accuracy gains under different experimental setups, as well as the implications for business practice. We provide suggestions when to use each for maximising demand forecasting gains.
AB - Recent advances have demonstrated the benefits of temporal aggregation for demand forecasting, including increased accuracy, improved stock control and reduced modelling uncertainty. With temporal aggregation a series is transformed, strengthening or attenuating different elements and thereby enabling better identification of the time series structure. Two different schools of thought have emerged. The first focuses on identifying a single optimal temporal aggregation level at which a forecasting model maximises its accuracy. In contrast, the second approach fits multiple models at multiple levels, each capable of capturing different features of the data. Both approaches have their merits, but so far they have been investigated in isolation. We compare and contrast them from a theoretical and an empirical perspective, discussing the merits of each, comparing the realised accuracy gains under different experimental setups, as well as the implications for business practice. We provide suggestions when to use each for maximising demand forecasting gains.
KW - Forecasting
KW - Time Series
KW - Temporal aggregation
M3 - Journal article
VL - 78
SP - 1
EP - 9
JO - Journal of Business Research
JF - Journal of Business Research
SN - 0148-2963
ER -