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Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces

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Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces. / Fronzek, Stefan; Carter, Timothy; Prittioja, Nina; Alkemade, Rob; Audsley, Eric; Bugmann, Harald; Florke, Martin; Holman, Ian P.; Honda, Yasushi; Ito, Akihiko; Janes-Bassett, Victoria; Lafond, Valentine; Leemans, Rik; Mokrech, Marc; Nunez, Sarahi; Sandars, Daniel; Snell, Rebecca; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tanaka, Akemi; Wimmer, Florian; Yoshikawa, Minoru.

In: Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, No. 3, 01.03.2019, p. 679–693.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Fronzek, S, Carter, T, Prittioja, N, Alkemade, R, Audsley, E, Bugmann, H, Florke, M, Holman, IP, Honda, Y, Ito, A, Janes-Bassett, V, Lafond, V, Leemans, R, Mokrech, M, Nunez, S, Sandars, D, Snell, R, Takahashi, K, Tanaka, A, Wimmer, F & Yoshikawa, M 2019, 'Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces', Regional Environmental Change, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 679–693. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8

APA

Fronzek, S., Carter, T., Prittioja, N., Alkemade, R., Audsley, E., Bugmann, H., Florke, M., Holman, I. P., Honda, Y., Ito, A., Janes-Bassett, V., Lafond, V., Leemans, R., Mokrech, M., Nunez, S., Sandars, D., Snell, R., Takahashi, K., Tanaka, A., ... Yoshikawa, M. (2019). Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces. Regional Environmental Change, 19(3), 679–693. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8

Vancouver

Fronzek S, Carter T, Prittioja N, Alkemade R, Audsley E, Bugmann H et al. Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces. Regional Environmental Change. 2019 Mar 1;19(3):679–693. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8

Author

Fronzek, Stefan ; Carter, Timothy ; Prittioja, Nina ; Alkemade, Rob ; Audsley, Eric ; Bugmann, Harald ; Florke, Martin ; Holman, Ian P. ; Honda, Yasushi ; Ito, Akihiko ; Janes-Bassett, Victoria ; Lafond, Valentine ; Leemans, Rik ; Mokrech, Marc ; Nunez, Sarahi ; Sandars, Daniel ; Snell, Rebecca ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Tanaka, Akemi ; Wimmer, Florian ; Yoshikawa, Minoru. / Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces. In: Regional Environmental Change. 2019 ; Vol. 19, No. 3. pp. 679–693.

Bibtex

@article{b30c662443d5474dafa83d6ca6ba9ab6,
title = "Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces",
abstract = "Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use.",
keywords = "Impact model, Sensitivity analysis, Temperature, Precipitation, population, Gross domestic product",
author = "Stefan Fronzek and Timothy Carter and Nina Prittioja and Rob Alkemade and Eric Audsley and Harald Bugmann and Martin Florke and Holman, {Ian P.} and Yasushi Honda and Akihiko Ito and Victoria Janes-Bassett and Valentine Lafond and Rik Leemans and Marc Mokrech and Sarahi Nunez and Daniel Sandars and Rebecca Snell and Kiyoshi Takahashi and Akemi Tanaka and Florian Wimmer and Minoru Yoshikawa",
year = "2019",
month = mar,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8",
language = "English",
volume = "19",
pages = "679–693",
journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
issn = "1436-3798",
publisher = "SPRINGER HEIDELBERG",
number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces

AU - Fronzek, Stefan

AU - Carter, Timothy

AU - Prittioja, Nina

AU - Alkemade, Rob

AU - Audsley, Eric

AU - Bugmann, Harald

AU - Florke, Martin

AU - Holman, Ian P.

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Ito, Akihiko

AU - Janes-Bassett, Victoria

AU - Lafond, Valentine

AU - Leemans, Rik

AU - Mokrech, Marc

AU - Nunez, Sarahi

AU - Sandars, Daniel

AU - Snell, Rebecca

AU - Takahashi, Kiyoshi

AU - Tanaka, Akemi

AU - Wimmer, Florian

AU - Yoshikawa, Minoru

PY - 2019/3/1

Y1 - 2019/3/1

N2 - Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use.

AB - Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use.

KW - Impact model

KW - Sensitivity analysis

KW - Temperature

KW - Precipitation

KW - population

KW - Gross domestic product

U2 - 10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8

DO - 10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8

M3 - Journal article

VL - 19

SP - 679

EP - 693

JO - Regional Environmental Change

JF - Regional Environmental Change

SN - 1436-3798

IS - 3

ER -