TY - GEN

T1 - Determining the range of predictions for calibrated agent-based simulation models

AU - Shi, DongFang

AU - Brooks, Roger

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - Agent-based simulation is increasingly used to study systems in many areas of business and science. Using agent-based simulation for prediction could be very valuable. However, these models usually have many parameters which are difficult to measure directly leading to uncertainty as to the best values to use. It is very important to consider the alternative feasible sets of parameter values, otherwise the modelling results could be misleading. A method is described to take account of this when making predictions and was applied to an agent-based word of mouth consumer model. The result was a wide prediction range indicating the limitations of using such a model for predictions. The method could also be applied in other situations.

AB - Agent-based simulation is increasingly used to study systems in many areas of business and science. Using agent-based simulation for prediction could be very valuable. However, these models usually have many parameters which are difficult to measure directly leading to uncertainty as to the best values to use. It is very important to consider the alternative feasible sets of parameter values, otherwise the modelling results could be misleading. A method is described to take account of this when making predictions and was applied to an agent-based word of mouth consumer model. The result was a wide prediction range indicating the limitations of using such a model for predictions. The method could also be applied in other situations.

M3 - Conference contribution/Paper

BT - Proceedings of the Operational Research Society Simulation Workshop 2010 (SW10)

ER -