TY - JOUR

T1 - Disease evolution across a range of spatio-temporal scales

AU - Read, Jonathan M.

AU - Keeling, Matt J.

PY - 2006/9

Y1 - 2006/9

N2 - Traditional explorations of infectious disease evolution have considered the competition between two cross-reactive strains within the standard framework of disease models. Such techniques predict that diseases should evolve to be highly transmissible, benign to the host and possess a long infectious period: in general, diseases do not conform to this ideal. Here we consider a more holistic approach, suggesting that evolution is a trade-off between adaptive pressures at different scales: within host, between hosts and at the population level. We present a model combining within-host pathogen dynamics and transmission between individuals governed by an explicit contact network, where transmission dynamics between hosts are a function of the interaction between the pathogen and the hosts' immune system, though ultimately constrained by the contacts each infected host possesses. Our results show how each of the scales places constraints on the evolutionary behavior, and that complex dynamics may emerge due to the feedbacks between epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics. In particular, multiple stable states can occur with switching between them stochastically driven. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

AB - Traditional explorations of infectious disease evolution have considered the competition between two cross-reactive strains within the standard framework of disease models. Such techniques predict that diseases should evolve to be highly transmissible, benign to the host and possess a long infectious period: in general, diseases do not conform to this ideal. Here we consider a more holistic approach, suggesting that evolution is a trade-off between adaptive pressures at different scales: within host, between hosts and at the population level. We present a model combining within-host pathogen dynamics and transmission between individuals governed by an explicit contact network, where transmission dynamics between hosts are a function of the interaction between the pathogen and the hosts' immune system, though ultimately constrained by the contacts each infected host possesses. Our results show how each of the scales places constraints on the evolutionary behavior, and that complex dynamics may emerge due to the feedbacks between epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics. In particular, multiple stable states can occur with switching between them stochastically driven. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

KW - transmission networks

KW - within-host dynamics

KW - stochasticity

KW - small worlds

KW - strain evolution

KW - transitivity

KW - SEXUALLY-TRANSMITTED-DISEASES

KW - POPULATION-STRUCTURE

KW - INFECTIOUS-DISEASES

KW - PATHOGEN VIRULENCE

KW - COLORADO-SPRINGS

KW - CONTACT PATTERNS

KW - HOST POPULATION

KW - TRADE-OFFS

KW - DYNAMICS

KW - NETWORKS

U2 - 10.1016/j.tpb.2006.04.006

DO - 10.1016/j.tpb.2006.04.006

M3 - Journal article

VL - 70

SP - 201

EP - 213

JO - Theoretical Population Biology

JF - Theoretical Population Biology

SN - 0040-5809

IS - 2

ER -