Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Dynamic social networks and the implications for the spread of infectious disease
AU - Read, Jonathan M.
AU - Eames, Ken T. D.
AU - Edmunds, W. John
PY - 2008/9/6
Y1 - 2008/9/6
N2 - Understanding the nature of human contact patterns is crucial for predicting the impact of future pandemics and devising effective control measures. However, few studies provide a quantitative description of the aspects of social interactions that are most relevant to disease transmission. Here, we present the results from a detailed diary-based survey of casual ( conversational) and close contact ( physical) encounters made by a small peer group of 49 adults who recorded 8661 encounters with 3528 different individuals over 14 non-consecutive days. We find that the stability of interactions depends on the intimacy of contact and social context. Casual contact encounters mostly occur in the workplace and are predominantly irregular, while close contact encounters mostly occur at home or in social situations and tend to be more stable. Simulated epidemics of casual contact transmission involve a large number of non-repeated encounters, and the social network is well captured by a random mixing model. However, the stability of the social network should be taken into account for close contact infections. Our findings have implications for the modelling of human epidemics and planning pandemic control policies based on social distancing methods.
AB - Understanding the nature of human contact patterns is crucial for predicting the impact of future pandemics and devising effective control measures. However, few studies provide a quantitative description of the aspects of social interactions that are most relevant to disease transmission. Here, we present the results from a detailed diary-based survey of casual ( conversational) and close contact ( physical) encounters made by a small peer group of 49 adults who recorded 8661 encounters with 3528 different individuals over 14 non-consecutive days. We find that the stability of interactions depends on the intimacy of contact and social context. Casual contact encounters mostly occur in the workplace and are predominantly irregular, while close contact encounters mostly occur at home or in social situations and tend to be more stable. Simulated epidemics of casual contact transmission involve a large number of non-repeated encounters, and the social network is well captured by a random mixing model. However, the stability of the social network should be taken into account for close contact infections. Our findings have implications for the modelling of human epidemics and planning pandemic control policies based on social distancing methods.
KW - airborne infection
KW - contact diary
KW - dynamic network
KW - epidemiology
KW - social distance
KW - PANDEMIC INFLUENZA
KW - MIXING PATTERNS
KW - UNITED-STATES
KW - TRANSMISSION
KW - STRATEGIES
KW - OUTBREAKS
KW - CONTACTS
KW - MODELS
KW - WEB
U2 - 10.1098/rsif.2008.0013
DO - 10.1098/rsif.2008.0013
M3 - Journal article
VL - 5
SP - 1001
EP - 1007
JO - Interface
JF - Interface
SN - 1742-5689
IS - 26
ER -