TY - JOUR

T1 - Energy price slump and policy response in the coal-chemical industry district

T2 - a case study of Ordos with a system dynamics model

AU - Wang, Delu

AU - Ma, Gang

AU - Song, Xuefeng

AU - Liu, Yun

N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy Policy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy Policy, 104, 2017 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.014

PY - 2017/5

Y1 - 2017/5

N2 - We employ system dynamics method towards a coal-chemical industry district economy evolution model, using coal industry, the coal-chemical industry, their downstream industries, and the manufacture-related service industry. Moreover, we construct energy price and policy response scenarios based on Ordos’ management experience. The results show that the energy price slump had a negative impact on the overall economic development of the coal-chemical industry district, despite promoting non-resource industries. Furthermore, policies had different effects on the industry's output value and profit. In the long-term, developing alternative industries (AI) helps increase the industrial output value and profit. Decreasing value added tax (VAT) has immediate results and a distinctive effect on industrial short-term production value and profit, its long-term effect being limited. The effect of production limit (PL) on industrial profit is stronger than output value, and financial support (FS) is more conducive to improve the latter. However, coal mining and coal-chemical loan increases decrease the gross industrial profit level. Technology innovation (TI) has the best individual policy overall effect on production value and profits. Furthermore, the simultaneous implementation of PL, TI and AI can generate the synergy effect for each of them. And the simultaneous implementation of VAT and one or couple of other policies will generate the crowding-out effect both for VAT and other policies.

AB - We employ system dynamics method towards a coal-chemical industry district economy evolution model, using coal industry, the coal-chemical industry, their downstream industries, and the manufacture-related service industry. Moreover, we construct energy price and policy response scenarios based on Ordos’ management experience. The results show that the energy price slump had a negative impact on the overall economic development of the coal-chemical industry district, despite promoting non-resource industries. Furthermore, policies had different effects on the industry's output value and profit. In the long-term, developing alternative industries (AI) helps increase the industrial output value and profit. Decreasing value added tax (VAT) has immediate results and a distinctive effect on industrial short-term production value and profit, its long-term effect being limited. The effect of production limit (PL) on industrial profit is stronger than output value, and financial support (FS) is more conducive to improve the latter. However, coal mining and coal-chemical loan increases decrease the gross industrial profit level. Technology innovation (TI) has the best individual policy overall effect on production value and profits. Furthermore, the simultaneous implementation of PL, TI and AI can generate the synergy effect for each of them. And the simultaneous implementation of VAT and one or couple of other policies will generate the crowding-out effect both for VAT and other policies.

KW - Energy price

KW - Policy response

KW - Coal-chemical industry district

KW - System dynamics

KW - Scenario analysis

U2 - 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.014

DO - 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.014

M3 - Journal article

VL - 104

SP - 325

EP - 339

JO - Energy Policy

JF - Energy Policy

SN - 0301-4215

ER -