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Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User-led development and testing

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Enhanced surface water flood forecasts : User-led development and testing. / Birch, C.E.; Rabb, B.L.; Böing, S.J. et al.

In: Journal of Flood Risk Management, Vol. 14, No. 2, e12691, 30.06.2021.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Birch, CE, Rabb, BL, Böing, SJ, Shelton, KL, Lamb, R, Hunter, N, Trigg, MA, Hines, A, Taylor, AL, Pilling, C & Dale, M 2021, 'Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User-led development and testing', Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol. 14, no. 2, e12691. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12691

APA

Birch, C. E., Rabb, B. L., Böing, S. J., Shelton, K. L., Lamb, R., Hunter, N., Trigg, M. A., Hines, A., Taylor, A. L., Pilling, C., & Dale, M. (2021). Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User-led development and testing. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 14(2), [e12691]. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12691

Vancouver

Birch CE, Rabb BL, Böing SJ, Shelton KL, Lamb R, Hunter N et al. Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User-led development and testing. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2021 Jun 30;14(2):e12691. Epub 2021 Jan 27. doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12691

Author

Birch, C.E. ; Rabb, B.L. ; Böing, S.J. et al. / Enhanced surface water flood forecasts : User-led development and testing. In: Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2021 ; Vol. 14, No. 2.

Bibtex

@article{fc813ae622ee4c788ae88764d045ff30,
title = "Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User-led development and testing",
abstract = "The risk of surface water flooding (SWF) in England is already high and its frequency and severity is projected to increase in the future. SWF generally occurs due to intense, highly localised rainfall, which is challenging to forecast with sufficient accuracy to take proactive action ahead of flood events. Being able to manage the risk effectively lies in improved rainfall and flood forecast products, better communication of uncertainty and building the capacity of local responders. This study utilises state-of-the-art high-resolution ensemble rainfall forecasts and hydraulic modelling tools alongside a novel post-processing method to develop and trial new SWF forecast products within an incident workshop attended by forecast producers and regional forecast users. Twenty-two of 24 workshop participants reported that the new information would be useful to their organisation but more product development and training in its interpretation is required. Specific recommendations to improve SWF forecast provision include increased support for local government through a single government organisation responsible for SWF, making more use of existing static SWF mapping in a real-time context and employing the process of user-based consultation, as outlined in this study, to guide the future development of future SWF forecast information and processes.",
keywords = "convective rainfall, engagement, ensemble forecasting, flood forecasting, intense rainfall, pluvial flooding, surface water flooding, user-led testing",
author = "C.E. Birch and B.L. Rabb and S.J. B{\"o}ing and K.L. Shelton and R. Lamb and N. Hunter and M.A. Trigg and A. Hines and A.L. Taylor and C. Pilling and M. Dale",
year = "2021",
month = jun,
day = "30",
doi = "10.1111/jfr3.12691",
language = "English",
volume = "14",
journal = "Journal of Flood Risk Management",
issn = "1753-318X",
publisher = "Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Enhanced surface water flood forecasts

T2 - User-led development and testing

AU - Birch, C.E.

AU - Rabb, B.L.

AU - Böing, S.J.

AU - Shelton, K.L.

AU - Lamb, R.

AU - Hunter, N.

AU - Trigg, M.A.

AU - Hines, A.

AU - Taylor, A.L.

AU - Pilling, C.

AU - Dale, M.

PY - 2021/6/30

Y1 - 2021/6/30

N2 - The risk of surface water flooding (SWF) in England is already high and its frequency and severity is projected to increase in the future. SWF generally occurs due to intense, highly localised rainfall, which is challenging to forecast with sufficient accuracy to take proactive action ahead of flood events. Being able to manage the risk effectively lies in improved rainfall and flood forecast products, better communication of uncertainty and building the capacity of local responders. This study utilises state-of-the-art high-resolution ensemble rainfall forecasts and hydraulic modelling tools alongside a novel post-processing method to develop and trial new SWF forecast products within an incident workshop attended by forecast producers and regional forecast users. Twenty-two of 24 workshop participants reported that the new information would be useful to their organisation but more product development and training in its interpretation is required. Specific recommendations to improve SWF forecast provision include increased support for local government through a single government organisation responsible for SWF, making more use of existing static SWF mapping in a real-time context and employing the process of user-based consultation, as outlined in this study, to guide the future development of future SWF forecast information and processes.

AB - The risk of surface water flooding (SWF) in England is already high and its frequency and severity is projected to increase in the future. SWF generally occurs due to intense, highly localised rainfall, which is challenging to forecast with sufficient accuracy to take proactive action ahead of flood events. Being able to manage the risk effectively lies in improved rainfall and flood forecast products, better communication of uncertainty and building the capacity of local responders. This study utilises state-of-the-art high-resolution ensemble rainfall forecasts and hydraulic modelling tools alongside a novel post-processing method to develop and trial new SWF forecast products within an incident workshop attended by forecast producers and regional forecast users. Twenty-two of 24 workshop participants reported that the new information would be useful to their organisation but more product development and training in its interpretation is required. Specific recommendations to improve SWF forecast provision include increased support for local government through a single government organisation responsible for SWF, making more use of existing static SWF mapping in a real-time context and employing the process of user-based consultation, as outlined in this study, to guide the future development of future SWF forecast information and processes.

KW - convective rainfall

KW - engagement

KW - ensemble forecasting

KW - flood forecasting

KW - intense rainfall

KW - pluvial flooding

KW - surface water flooding

KW - user-led testing

U2 - 10.1111/jfr3.12691

DO - 10.1111/jfr3.12691

M3 - Journal article

VL - 14

JO - Journal of Flood Risk Management

JF - Journal of Flood Risk Management

SN - 1753-318X

IS - 2

M1 - e12691

ER -