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Ensemble prospectism

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Ensemble prospectism. / Kaivanto, Kim Kaleva.
In: Theory and Decision, Vol. 83, No. 4, 18.11.2017, p. 535-546.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Kaivanto, KK 2017, 'Ensemble prospectism', Theory and Decision, vol. 83, no. 4, pp. 535-546. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-017-9622-z

APA

Kaivanto, K. K. (2017). Ensemble prospectism. Theory and Decision, 83(4), 535-546. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-017-9622-z

Vancouver

Kaivanto KK. Ensemble prospectism. Theory and Decision. 2017 Nov 18;83(4):535-546. Epub 2017 Jun 27. doi: 10.1007/s11238-017-9622-z

Author

Kaivanto, Kim Kaleva. / Ensemble prospectism. In: Theory and Decision. 2017 ; Vol. 83, No. 4. pp. 535-546.

Bibtex

@article{1f99ee874d9942209b650e239a1eb134,
title = "Ensemble prospectism",
abstract = "Incomplete preferences displaying {\textquoteleft}mildly sweetened{\textquoteright} structure are common, yet theoretically problematic. This paper examines the properties of the rankings induced by the set of all coherent completions of the mildly sweetened partial preference structure. Building on these properties, I propose an ensemble-based refinement of Hare{\textquoteright}s (Analysis 70:237–247, 2010) prospectism criterion for rational choice when preferences are incomplete. Importantly, this ensemble-based refinement is immune to Peterson{\textquoteright}s (Theory & Decision 78:451–456, 2015) weak money pump argument. Hence, ensemble prospectism ensures outcome rationality. Furthermore, by recognizing the structural isomorphism between mildly sweetened preference structures and Cover{\textquoteright}s splitting rule in Blackwell{\textquoteright}s Pick the Largest Number problem (Ann Math Stat 22:393–399, 1951), ensemble prospectism can be shown to yield better-than-even odds of selecting the expost higher-utility option -– despite the absence of all-things-considered preferences ex ante.",
keywords = "Prospectism, Refinement, Money pump, Outcome rationality, Ensemble method, Incomplete preferences, Mildly sweetened preferences, Voting rules, Cover rule",
author = "Kaivanto, {Kim Kaleva}",
year = "2017",
month = nov,
day = "18",
doi = "10.1007/s11238-017-9622-z",
language = "English",
volume = "83",
pages = "535--546",
journal = "Theory and Decision",
issn = "0040-5833",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ensemble prospectism

AU - Kaivanto, Kim Kaleva

PY - 2017/11/18

Y1 - 2017/11/18

N2 - Incomplete preferences displaying ‘mildly sweetened’ structure are common, yet theoretically problematic. This paper examines the properties of the rankings induced by the set of all coherent completions of the mildly sweetened partial preference structure. Building on these properties, I propose an ensemble-based refinement of Hare’s (Analysis 70:237–247, 2010) prospectism criterion for rational choice when preferences are incomplete. Importantly, this ensemble-based refinement is immune to Peterson’s (Theory & Decision 78:451–456, 2015) weak money pump argument. Hence, ensemble prospectism ensures outcome rationality. Furthermore, by recognizing the structural isomorphism between mildly sweetened preference structures and Cover’s splitting rule in Blackwell’s Pick the Largest Number problem (Ann Math Stat 22:393–399, 1951), ensemble prospectism can be shown to yield better-than-even odds of selecting the expost higher-utility option -– despite the absence of all-things-considered preferences ex ante.

AB - Incomplete preferences displaying ‘mildly sweetened’ structure are common, yet theoretically problematic. This paper examines the properties of the rankings induced by the set of all coherent completions of the mildly sweetened partial preference structure. Building on these properties, I propose an ensemble-based refinement of Hare’s (Analysis 70:237–247, 2010) prospectism criterion for rational choice when preferences are incomplete. Importantly, this ensemble-based refinement is immune to Peterson’s (Theory & Decision 78:451–456, 2015) weak money pump argument. Hence, ensemble prospectism ensures outcome rationality. Furthermore, by recognizing the structural isomorphism between mildly sweetened preference structures and Cover’s splitting rule in Blackwell’s Pick the Largest Number problem (Ann Math Stat 22:393–399, 1951), ensemble prospectism can be shown to yield better-than-even odds of selecting the expost higher-utility option -– despite the absence of all-things-considered preferences ex ante.

KW - Prospectism

KW - Refinement

KW - Money pump

KW - Outcome rationality

KW - Ensemble method

KW - Incomplete preferences

KW - Mildly sweetened preferences

KW - Voting rules

KW - Cover rule

U2 - 10.1007/s11238-017-9622-z

DO - 10.1007/s11238-017-9622-z

M3 - Journal article

VL - 83

SP - 535

EP - 546

JO - Theory and Decision

JF - Theory and Decision

SN - 0040-5833

IS - 4

ER -