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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluating temporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka
T2 - the potential for higher snakebite burdens with climate change
AU - Ediriweera, Dileepa Senajith
AU - Diggle, Peter John
AU - Kasturiratne, Anuradhani
AU - Pathmeswaran, Arunasalam
AU - Gunawardena, Nipul Kithsiri
AU - Jayamanne, Shaluka Francis
AU - Isbister, Geoffrey Kennedy
AU - Dawson, Andrew
AU - Lalloo, David Griffith
AU - de Silva, Hithanadura Janaka
PY - 2018/12/1
Y1 - 2018/12/1
N2 - Background: Snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that has been overlooked by healthcare decision makers in many countries. Previous studies have reported seasonal variation in hospital admission rates due to snakebites in endemic countries including Sri Lanka, but seasonal patterns have not been investigated in detail.Methods: A national community-based survey was conducted during the period of August 2012 to June 2013. The survey used a multistage cluster design, sampled 165 665 individuals living in 44 136 households and recorded all recalled snakebite events that had occurred during the preceding year. Log-linear models were fitted to describe the expected number of snakebites occurring in each month, taking into account seasonal trends and weather conditions, and addressing the effects of variation in survey effort during the study and of recall bias amongst survey respondents.Results: Snakebite events showed a clear seasonal variation. Typically, snakebite incidence is highest during November-December followed by March-May and August, but this can vary between years due to variations in relative humidity, which is also a risk factor. Low relative-humidity levels are associated with high snakebite incidence. If current climate-change projections are correct, this could lead to an increase in the annual snakebite burden of 31.3% (95% confidence interval: 10.7-55.7) during the next 25-50 years.Conclusions: Snakebite in Sri Lanka shows seasonal variation. Additionally, more snakebites can be expected during periods of lower-than-expected humidity. Global climate change is likely to increase the incidence of snakebite in Sri Lanka.
AB - Background: Snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that has been overlooked by healthcare decision makers in many countries. Previous studies have reported seasonal variation in hospital admission rates due to snakebites in endemic countries including Sri Lanka, but seasonal patterns have not been investigated in detail.Methods: A national community-based survey was conducted during the period of August 2012 to June 2013. The survey used a multistage cluster design, sampled 165 665 individuals living in 44 136 households and recorded all recalled snakebite events that had occurred during the preceding year. Log-linear models were fitted to describe the expected number of snakebites occurring in each month, taking into account seasonal trends and weather conditions, and addressing the effects of variation in survey effort during the study and of recall bias amongst survey respondents.Results: Snakebite events showed a clear seasonal variation. Typically, snakebite incidence is highest during November-December followed by March-May and August, but this can vary between years due to variations in relative humidity, which is also a risk factor. Low relative-humidity levels are associated with high snakebite incidence. If current climate-change projections are correct, this could lead to an increase in the annual snakebite burden of 31.3% (95% confidence interval: 10.7-55.7) during the next 25-50 years.Conclusions: Snakebite in Sri Lanka shows seasonal variation. Additionally, more snakebites can be expected during periods of lower-than-expected humidity. Global climate change is likely to increase the incidence of snakebite in Sri Lanka.
KW - Sri Lanka
KW - snakebite
KW - seasonal variation
KW - weather
KW - relative humidity
KW - global climate change
U2 - 10.1093/ije/dyy188
DO - 10.1093/ije/dyy188
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 30215727
VL - 47
SP - 2049
EP - 2058
JO - International Journal of Epidemiology
JF - International Journal of Epidemiology
SN - 0300-5771
IS - 6
ER -