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Forecast horizon aggregation in integer autoregressive moving average (INARMA) models

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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>1/12/2012
<mark>Journal</mark>Omega: The International Journal of Management Science
Issue number6
Volume40
Number of pages10
Pages (from-to)703-712
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

This paper addresses aggregation in integer autoregressive moving average (INARMA) models. Although aggregation in continuous-valued time series has been widely discussed, the same is not true for integer-valued time series. Forecast horizon aggregation is addressed in this paper. It is shown that the overlapping forecast horizon aggregation of an INARMA process results in an INARMA process. The conditional expected value of the aggregated process is also derived for use in forecasting. A simulation experiment is conducted to assess the accuracy of the forecasts produced by the aggregation method and to compare it to the accuracy of cumulative h-step ahead forecasts over the forecasting horizon. The results of an empirical analysis are also provided.