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Research output: Working paper
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TY - UNPB
T1 - Forward guidance shocks
AU - Miescu, Mirela
PY - 2022/3/23
Y1 - 2022/3/23
N2 - I estimate the effects of a forward guidance (FG) shock and compare it with atraditional monetary policy (MP) shock. I find that FG shocks have smaller effectson macroeconomic aggregates than MP shocks. Structural identification is reachedby a novel heteroscedascticity-based approach that exploits (i) the introduction of the forward guidance in the form of a published policy-rate path in the US in January 2012; and (ii) the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraints. My findings are consistent with the predictions of the latest theories about the FG puzzle.
AB - I estimate the effects of a forward guidance (FG) shock and compare it with atraditional monetary policy (MP) shock. I find that FG shocks have smaller effectson macroeconomic aggregates than MP shocks. Structural identification is reachedby a novel heteroscedascticity-based approach that exploits (i) the introduction of the forward guidance in the form of a published policy-rate path in the US in January 2012; and (ii) the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraints. My findings are consistent with the predictions of the latest theories about the FG puzzle.
KW - forward guidance
KW - Monetary policy
KW - event study
KW - heteroscedasticity
KW - structural VAR
M3 - Working paper
T3 - Economics Working Papers Series
BT - Forward guidance shocks
PB - Lancaster University, Department of Economics
CY - Lancaster
ER -