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Generalized Disappointment Aversion and the Variance Term Structure

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>30/06/2024
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Issue number4
Volume59
Number of pages24
Pages (from-to)1796-1820
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date27/03/23
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

Contrary to leading asset pricing theories, recent empirical evidence indicates that financial markets compensate only short-term equity variance risk. An equilibrium model with generalized disappointment aversion risk preferences and rare events reconciles salient features of the variance term structure. In addition, a calibration explains the variance and skew risk premiums in equity returns and the implied volatility skew of index options while capturing standard moments of fundamentals, equity returns, and the risk-free rate. The key intuition for the results stems from substantial countercyclical risk aversion induced by endogenous variation in the probability of disappointing events in consumption growth.