TY - JOUR

T1 - Geographically regulated designs of incidence surveys can match the precision of classical survey designs whilst requiring smaller sample sizes: the case of snakebite envenoming in Sri Lanka

AU - Ediriweera, Dileepa Senajith

AU - de Silva, Tiloka

AU - Kasturiratne, Anuradhani

AU - de Silva, Hithanadura Janaka

AU - Diggle, Peter

PY - 2022/10/11

Y1 - 2022/10/11

N2 - Snakebite envenoming is a neglected tropical disease. Data from the worst affected countries are limited because conducting epidemiological surveys is challenging. We assessed the utility of inhibitory geostatistical design with close pairs (ICP) to estimate snakebite envenoming incidence. The National Snakebite Survey (NSS) in Sri Lanka adopted a multistage cluster sampling design, based on population distribution, targeting 1% of the country's population. Using a simulation-based study, we assessed predictive efficiency of ICP against a classical survey design at different fractions of the original sample size of the NSS. We also assessed travel distance, time taken to complete the survey, and sensitivity and specificity for detecting high-risk areas for snake envenoming, when using these methods. A classical survey design with 33% of the original NSS sample size was able to yield a similar predictive efficiency. ICP yielded the same at 25% of the NSS sample size, a 25% reduction in sample size compared with a classical survey design. ICP showed >80% sensitivity and specificity for detecting high-risk areas of envenoming when the sampling fraction was >20%. When ICP was adopted with 25% of the original NSS sample size, travel distance was reduced by >40% and time to conduct the survey was reduced by >75%. This study showed that snakebite envenoming incidence can be estimated by adopting an ICP design with similar precision at a lower sample size than a classical design. This would substantially save resources and time taken to conduct epidemiological surveys and may be suited for low-resource settings. [Abstract copyright: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.]

AB - Snakebite envenoming is a neglected tropical disease. Data from the worst affected countries are limited because conducting epidemiological surveys is challenging. We assessed the utility of inhibitory geostatistical design with close pairs (ICP) to estimate snakebite envenoming incidence. The National Snakebite Survey (NSS) in Sri Lanka adopted a multistage cluster sampling design, based on population distribution, targeting 1% of the country's population. Using a simulation-based study, we assessed predictive efficiency of ICP against a classical survey design at different fractions of the original sample size of the NSS. We also assessed travel distance, time taken to complete the survey, and sensitivity and specificity for detecting high-risk areas for snake envenoming, when using these methods. A classical survey design with 33% of the original NSS sample size was able to yield a similar predictive efficiency. ICP yielded the same at 25% of the NSS sample size, a 25% reduction in sample size compared with a classical survey design. ICP showed >80% sensitivity and specificity for detecting high-risk areas of envenoming when the sampling fraction was >20%. When ICP was adopted with 25% of the original NSS sample size, travel distance was reduced by >40% and time to conduct the survey was reduced by >75%. This study showed that snakebite envenoming incidence can be estimated by adopting an ICP design with similar precision at a lower sample size than a classical design. This would substantially save resources and time taken to conduct epidemiological surveys and may be suited for low-resource settings. [Abstract copyright: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.]

KW - Health services research

KW - Snake Venoms

KW - Incidence

KW - Antivenins - therapeutic use

KW - Sri Lanka - epidemiology

KW - Community-based survey

KW - Neglected Diseases

KW - Cross-sectional survey

KW - Snake bite, stings and other evenoming

KW - Geographic information systems

KW - Humans

KW - Snake Bites - epidemiology

KW - Sample Size

U2 - 10.1136/bmjgh-2022-009500

DO - 10.1136/bmjgh-2022-009500

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 36220306

VL - 7

JO - BMJ Global Health

JF - BMJ Global Health

SN - 2059-7908

IS - 10

M1 - e009500

ER -