Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climat...

Electronic data

  • revised

    Accepted author manuscript, 733 KB, PDF document

    Available under license: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Links

View graph of relations

Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: Exploring model diversity

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published

Standard

Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: Exploring model diversity. / Wild, Oliver; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; O'Connor, Fiona et al.
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , Vol. 20, 03.04.2020, p. 4047–4058.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Wild, O, Voulgarakis, A, O'Connor, F, Lamarque, J-F, Ryan, E & Lee, L 2020, 'Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: Exploring model diversity', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , vol. 20, pp. 4047–4058. <https://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2019-774/>

APA

Vancouver

Wild O, Voulgarakis A, O'Connor F, Lamarque J-F, Ryan E, Lee L. Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: Exploring model diversity. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics . 2020 Apr 3;20:4047–4058.

Author

Wild, Oliver ; Voulgarakis, Apostolos ; O'Connor, Fiona et al. / Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH : Exploring model diversity. In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics . 2020 ; Vol. 20. pp. 4047–4058.

Bibtex

@article{69e29f623b36417381ace015f66df531,
title = "Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: Exploring model diversity",
abstract = "Projections of future atmospheric composition change and its impacts on air quality and climate depend heavily on chemistry-climate models that allow us to investigate the effects of changing emissions and meteorology. These models are imperfect as they rely on our understanding of the chemical, physical and dynamical processes governing atmospheric composition, on the approximations needed to represent these numerically, and on the limitations of the observations required to constrain them. Model intercomparison studies show substantial diversity in results that reflect underlying uncertainties, but little progress has been made in explaining the causes of this or in identifying the weaknesses in process understanding or representation that could lead to improved models and to better scientific understanding. Global sensitivity analysis provides a valuable method of identifying and quantifying the main causes of diversity in current models. For the first time, we apply Gaussian process emulation with three independent global chemistry transport models to quantify the sensitivity of ozone and hydroxyl radicals (OH) to important climate-relevant variables, poorly-characterized processes and uncertain emissions. We show a clear sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to atmospheric humidity and precursor emissions which is similar for the models, but find large differences between models for methane lifetime, highlighting substantial differences in the sensitivity of OH to primary and secondary production. This approach allows us to identify key areas where model improvements are required while providing valuable new insight into the processes driving tropospheric composition change.",
keywords = "Ozone, OH, Tropospheric chemistry, Modelling, Uncertainty, Sensitivity analysis, Model intercomparison",
author = "Oliver Wild and Apostolos Voulgarakis and Fiona O'Connor and Jean-Francois Lamarque and Edmund Ryan and Lindsay Lee",
year = "2020",
month = apr,
day = "3",
language = "English",
volume = "20",
pages = "4047–4058",
journal = "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ",
issn = "1680-7316",
publisher = "Copernicus GmbH (Copernicus Publications) on behalf of the European Geosciences Union (EGU)",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH

T2 - Exploring model diversity

AU - Wild, Oliver

AU - Voulgarakis, Apostolos

AU - O'Connor, Fiona

AU - Lamarque, Jean-Francois

AU - Ryan, Edmund

AU - Lee, Lindsay

PY - 2020/4/3

Y1 - 2020/4/3

N2 - Projections of future atmospheric composition change and its impacts on air quality and climate depend heavily on chemistry-climate models that allow us to investigate the effects of changing emissions and meteorology. These models are imperfect as they rely on our understanding of the chemical, physical and dynamical processes governing atmospheric composition, on the approximations needed to represent these numerically, and on the limitations of the observations required to constrain them. Model intercomparison studies show substantial diversity in results that reflect underlying uncertainties, but little progress has been made in explaining the causes of this or in identifying the weaknesses in process understanding or representation that could lead to improved models and to better scientific understanding. Global sensitivity analysis provides a valuable method of identifying and quantifying the main causes of diversity in current models. For the first time, we apply Gaussian process emulation with three independent global chemistry transport models to quantify the sensitivity of ozone and hydroxyl radicals (OH) to important climate-relevant variables, poorly-characterized processes and uncertain emissions. We show a clear sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to atmospheric humidity and precursor emissions which is similar for the models, but find large differences between models for methane lifetime, highlighting substantial differences in the sensitivity of OH to primary and secondary production. This approach allows us to identify key areas where model improvements are required while providing valuable new insight into the processes driving tropospheric composition change.

AB - Projections of future atmospheric composition change and its impacts on air quality and climate depend heavily on chemistry-climate models that allow us to investigate the effects of changing emissions and meteorology. These models are imperfect as they rely on our understanding of the chemical, physical and dynamical processes governing atmospheric composition, on the approximations needed to represent these numerically, and on the limitations of the observations required to constrain them. Model intercomparison studies show substantial diversity in results that reflect underlying uncertainties, but little progress has been made in explaining the causes of this or in identifying the weaknesses in process understanding or representation that could lead to improved models and to better scientific understanding. Global sensitivity analysis provides a valuable method of identifying and quantifying the main causes of diversity in current models. For the first time, we apply Gaussian process emulation with three independent global chemistry transport models to quantify the sensitivity of ozone and hydroxyl radicals (OH) to important climate-relevant variables, poorly-characterized processes and uncertain emissions. We show a clear sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to atmospheric humidity and precursor emissions which is similar for the models, but find large differences between models for methane lifetime, highlighting substantial differences in the sensitivity of OH to primary and secondary production. This approach allows us to identify key areas where model improvements are required while providing valuable new insight into the processes driving tropospheric composition change.

KW - Ozone

KW - OH

KW - Tropospheric chemistry

KW - Modelling

KW - Uncertainty

KW - Sensitivity analysis

KW - Model intercomparison

M3 - Journal article

VL - 20

SP - 4047

EP - 4058

JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

JF - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

SN - 1680-7316

ER -