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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Health impacts of long-term ozone exposure in China over 2013–2017
AU - Wang, Yuanlin
AU - Wild, Oliver
AU - Chen, Xueshun
AU - Wu, Qizhong
AU - Gao, Meng
AU - Chen, Huansheng
AU - Qi, Yi
AU - Wang, Zifa
PY - 2020/11/1
Y1 - 2020/11/1
N2 - Increasing ozone concentrations are becoming a severe problem for air pollution in China and have an adverse impact on human health. Here we evaluate premature deaths attributable to long-term exposure to ambient ozone in China between 2013 and 2017 with an air quality model at 5 km resolution and the latest estimates of the relative risk to health. We use a modified inverse distance weighting method to bias-correct the key model-simulated ozone metrics. We find that on a 5-year average basis there are 186,000 (95% Confidence Interval: 129,000–237,000) respiratory deaths and 125,000 (42,000–204,000) cardiovascular deaths attributable to ozone exposure. Sichuan exhibits the largest per capita respiratory mortality (0.31‰) among all provinces. We find that there are 73,000 (51,000–93,000) premature respiratory deaths in urban areas, accounting for 39% of total deaths. Between 2013 and 2017 the population-weighted annual average maximum daily 8-h average ozone (AMDA8) and premature respiratory deaths increased by 14% and 31%, respectively, at a national level. Changes in precursor emissions explain most of these increases, with differences in meteorology accounting for 21% and 16% respectively. Interannual variations in population-weighted ozone and premature respiratory deaths at a provincial level are much larger than those at a national level, particularly in northern, central and eastern China. These findings emphasize that ozone should be an important focus of future air quality policies in China, and tighter controls of precursor emissions are urgently needed.
AB - Increasing ozone concentrations are becoming a severe problem for air pollution in China and have an adverse impact on human health. Here we evaluate premature deaths attributable to long-term exposure to ambient ozone in China between 2013 and 2017 with an air quality model at 5 km resolution and the latest estimates of the relative risk to health. We use a modified inverse distance weighting method to bias-correct the key model-simulated ozone metrics. We find that on a 5-year average basis there are 186,000 (95% Confidence Interval: 129,000–237,000) respiratory deaths and 125,000 (42,000–204,000) cardiovascular deaths attributable to ozone exposure. Sichuan exhibits the largest per capita respiratory mortality (0.31‰) among all provinces. We find that there are 73,000 (51,000–93,000) premature respiratory deaths in urban areas, accounting for 39% of total deaths. Between 2013 and 2017 the population-weighted annual average maximum daily 8-h average ozone (AMDA8) and premature respiratory deaths increased by 14% and 31%, respectively, at a national level. Changes in precursor emissions explain most of these increases, with differences in meteorology accounting for 21% and 16% respectively. Interannual variations in population-weighted ozone and premature respiratory deaths at a provincial level are much larger than those at a national level, particularly in northern, central and eastern China. These findings emphasize that ozone should be an important focus of future air quality policies in China, and tighter controls of precursor emissions are urgently needed.
KW - Ozone
KW - Air quality modelling
KW - Health impacts
KW - Exposure
KW - Interannual variation
KW - Long-term exposure
KW - High resolution data
KW - China
U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2020.106030
DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2020.106030
M3 - Journal article
VL - 144
JO - Environment International
JF - Environment International
SN - 0160-4120
M1 - 106030
ER -