Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > How difficult is it to forecast worlds’ most su...
View graph of relations

How difficult is it to forecast worlds’ most successful products? The case of Apple iPhone

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSNConference contribution/Paperpeer-review

Published

Standard

How difficult is it to forecast worlds’ most successful products? The case of Apple iPhone. / Petropoulos, Fotios; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Litsa, Akrivi; Polychronakis, Yiannis; Assimakopoulos, Vassilios.

OR 54: Edinburgh 2012: keynote papers: 4-6 September 2012, the University of Edinburgh.. ed. / Galina Andreeva. Operational Research Society, 2012. p. 3-17.

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSNConference contribution/Paperpeer-review

Harvard

Petropoulos, F, Nikolopoulos, K, Litsa, A, Polychronakis, Y & Assimakopoulos, V 2012, How difficult is it to forecast worlds’ most successful products? The case of Apple iPhone. in G Andreeva (ed.), OR 54: Edinburgh 2012: keynote papers: 4-6 September 2012, the University of Edinburgh.. Operational Research Society, pp. 3-17.

APA

Petropoulos, F., Nikolopoulos, K., Litsa, A., Polychronakis, Y., & Assimakopoulos, V. (2012). How difficult is it to forecast worlds’ most successful products? The case of Apple iPhone. In G. Andreeva (Ed.), OR 54: Edinburgh 2012: keynote papers: 4-6 September 2012, the University of Edinburgh. (pp. 3-17). Operational Research Society.

Vancouver

Petropoulos F, Nikolopoulos K, Litsa A, Polychronakis Y, Assimakopoulos V. How difficult is it to forecast worlds’ most successful products? The case of Apple iPhone. In Andreeva G, editor, OR 54: Edinburgh 2012: keynote papers: 4-6 September 2012, the University of Edinburgh.. Operational Research Society. 2012. p. 3-17

Author

Petropoulos, Fotios ; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos ; Litsa, Akrivi ; Polychronakis, Yiannis ; Assimakopoulos, Vassilios. / How difficult is it to forecast worlds’ most successful products? The case of Apple iPhone. OR 54: Edinburgh 2012: keynote papers: 4-6 September 2012, the University of Edinburgh.. editor / Galina Andreeva. Operational Research Society, 2012. pp. 3-17

Bibtex

@inproceedings{763528e55cd24febbe84b32ff3949305,
title = "How difficult is it to forecast worlds{\textquoteright} most successful products? The case of Apple iPhone",
abstract = "Apple is the largest publicly traded company in the world by market capitalization, as well as the largest technology company in the world by revenue and profit. Accurate forecasting unit sales is of major importance, as even the smallest of the errors will have huge impact in terms of sales management and revenues. The current research investigates extrapolation alternatives regarding iPhone unit sales, probably the most influential product of the corporation. Simple and straightforward time series techniques (na{\"i}ve, exponential smoothing methods, theta model) are competing judgmental approaches (unaided judgment, interaction groups) performed by three groups of participants in terms of expertise (novices, semi-experts, experts). Moreover, two subgroups (for each level of expertise) were formed, regarding the amount of information provided to participants. The performance of the alternatives was measured in terms of bias and accuracy, using simple error and absolute percentage error. Results indicate that judgmental approaches produced greater forecasts than quantitative methods, while focusing effect is verified to lead to cognitive bias when forecasting future outcomes. As far as performance is concerned, combination of time series extrapolation techniques with judgmental forecasts derived from groups with limited knowledge produces the smallest forecasting errors.",
keywords = "sales forecasting, Apple, iPhone, statistical forecasting methods, judgmental forecasting",
author = "Fotios Petropoulos and Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Akrivi Litsa and Yiannis Polychronakis and Vassilios Assimakopoulos",
year = "2012",
month = sep,
language = "English",
isbn = "0903440512",
pages = "3--17",
editor = "Galina Andreeva",
booktitle = "OR 54:",
publisher = "Operational Research Society",

}

RIS

TY - GEN

T1 - How difficult is it to forecast worlds’ most successful products? The case of Apple iPhone

AU - Petropoulos, Fotios

AU - Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos

AU - Litsa, Akrivi

AU - Polychronakis, Yiannis

AU - Assimakopoulos, Vassilios

PY - 2012/9

Y1 - 2012/9

N2 - Apple is the largest publicly traded company in the world by market capitalization, as well as the largest technology company in the world by revenue and profit. Accurate forecasting unit sales is of major importance, as even the smallest of the errors will have huge impact in terms of sales management and revenues. The current research investigates extrapolation alternatives regarding iPhone unit sales, probably the most influential product of the corporation. Simple and straightforward time series techniques (naïve, exponential smoothing methods, theta model) are competing judgmental approaches (unaided judgment, interaction groups) performed by three groups of participants in terms of expertise (novices, semi-experts, experts). Moreover, two subgroups (for each level of expertise) were formed, regarding the amount of information provided to participants. The performance of the alternatives was measured in terms of bias and accuracy, using simple error and absolute percentage error. Results indicate that judgmental approaches produced greater forecasts than quantitative methods, while focusing effect is verified to lead to cognitive bias when forecasting future outcomes. As far as performance is concerned, combination of time series extrapolation techniques with judgmental forecasts derived from groups with limited knowledge produces the smallest forecasting errors.

AB - Apple is the largest publicly traded company in the world by market capitalization, as well as the largest technology company in the world by revenue and profit. Accurate forecasting unit sales is of major importance, as even the smallest of the errors will have huge impact in terms of sales management and revenues. The current research investigates extrapolation alternatives regarding iPhone unit sales, probably the most influential product of the corporation. Simple and straightforward time series techniques (naïve, exponential smoothing methods, theta model) are competing judgmental approaches (unaided judgment, interaction groups) performed by three groups of participants in terms of expertise (novices, semi-experts, experts). Moreover, two subgroups (for each level of expertise) were formed, regarding the amount of information provided to participants. The performance of the alternatives was measured in terms of bias and accuracy, using simple error and absolute percentage error. Results indicate that judgmental approaches produced greater forecasts than quantitative methods, while focusing effect is verified to lead to cognitive bias when forecasting future outcomes. As far as performance is concerned, combination of time series extrapolation techniques with judgmental forecasts derived from groups with limited knowledge produces the smallest forecasting errors.

KW - sales forecasting

KW - Apple

KW - iPhone

KW - statistical forecasting methods

KW - judgmental forecasting

M3 - Conference contribution/Paper

SN - 0903440512

SP - 3

EP - 17

BT - OR 54:

A2 - Andreeva, Galina

PB - Operational Research Society

ER -