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Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts

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Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. / Schaller, Nathalie; Kay, Alison L.; Lamb, Rob; Massey, Neil R.; Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Vautard, Robert; Yiou, Pascal; Ashpole, Ian; Bowery, Andy; Crooks, Susan M.; Haustein, Karsten; Huntingford, Chris; Ingram, William J.; Jones, Richard G.; Legg, Tim; Miller, Jonathan; Skeggs, Jessica; Wallom, David; Weisheimer, Antje; Wilson, Simon; Stott, Peter A.; Allen, Myles R.

In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, No. 6, 26.05.2016, p. 627-634.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Schaller, N, Kay, AL, Lamb, R, Massey, NR, Van Oldenborgh, GJ, Otto, FEL, Sparrow, SN, Vautard, R, Yiou, P, Ashpole, I, Bowery, A, Crooks, SM, Haustein, K, Huntingford, C, Ingram, WJ, Jones, RG, Legg, T, Miller, J, Skeggs, J, Wallom, D, Weisheimer, A, Wilson, S, Stott, PA & Allen, MR 2016, 'Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts', Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 627-634. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2927

APA

Schaller, N., Kay, A. L., Lamb, R., Massey, N. R., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F. E. L., Sparrow, S. N., Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Ashpole, I., Bowery, A., Crooks, S. M., Haustein, K., Huntingford, C., Ingram, W. J., Jones, R. G., Legg, T., Miller, J., Skeggs, J., ... Allen, M. R. (2016). Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature Climate Change, 6(6), 627-634. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2927

Vancouver

Schaller N, Kay AL, Lamb R, Massey NR, Van Oldenborgh GJ, Otto FEL et al. Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature Climate Change. 2016 May 26;6(6):627-634. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2927

Author

Schaller, Nathalie ; Kay, Alison L. ; Lamb, Rob ; Massey, Neil R. ; Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan ; Otto, Friederike E. L. ; Sparrow, Sarah N. ; Vautard, Robert ; Yiou, Pascal ; Ashpole, Ian ; Bowery, Andy ; Crooks, Susan M. ; Haustein, Karsten ; Huntingford, Chris ; Ingram, William J. ; Jones, Richard G. ; Legg, Tim ; Miller, Jonathan ; Skeggs, Jessica ; Wallom, David ; Weisheimer, Antje ; Wilson, Simon ; Stott, Peter A. ; Allen, Myles R. / Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. In: Nature Climate Change. 2016 ; Vol. 6, No. 6. pp. 627-634.

Bibtex

@article{7c688673e7e54869ac1252b7be5154bf,
title = "Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts",
abstract = "A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment{\textquoteright}s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day e_ects of human influence on climate.",
author = "Nathalie Schaller and Kay, {Alison L.} and Rob Lamb and Massey, {Neil R.} and {Van Oldenborgh}, {Geert Jan} and Otto, {Friederike E. L.} and Sparrow, {Sarah N.} and Robert Vautard and Pascal Yiou and Ian Ashpole and Andy Bowery and Crooks, {Susan M.} and Karsten Haustein and Chris Huntingford and Ingram, {William J.} and Jones, {Richard G.} and Tim Legg and Jonathan Miller and Jessica Skeggs and David Wallom and Antje Weisheimer and Simon Wilson and Stott, {Peter A.} and Allen, {Myles R.}",
year = "2016",
month = may,
day = "26",
doi = "10.1038/nclimate2927",
language = "English",
volume = "6",
pages = "627--634",
journal = "Nature Climate Change",
issn = "1758-678X",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "6",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts

AU - Schaller, Nathalie

AU - Kay, Alison L.

AU - Lamb, Rob

AU - Massey, Neil R.

AU - Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan

AU - Otto, Friederike E. L.

AU - Sparrow, Sarah N.

AU - Vautard, Robert

AU - Yiou, Pascal

AU - Ashpole, Ian

AU - Bowery, Andy

AU - Crooks, Susan M.

AU - Haustein, Karsten

AU - Huntingford, Chris

AU - Ingram, William J.

AU - Jones, Richard G.

AU - Legg, Tim

AU - Miller, Jonathan

AU - Skeggs, Jessica

AU - Wallom, David

AU - Weisheimer, Antje

AU - Wilson, Simon

AU - Stott, Peter A.

AU - Allen, Myles R.

PY - 2016/5/26

Y1 - 2016/5/26

N2 - A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day e_ects of human influence on climate.

AB - A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day e_ects of human influence on climate.

U2 - 10.1038/nclimate2927

DO - 10.1038/nclimate2927

M3 - Journal article

VL - 6

SP - 627

EP - 634

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

SN - 1758-678X

IS - 6

ER -