Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review
Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review
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TY - GEN
T1 - Human mobility and measles
AU - Marguta, Ramona
AU - Parisi, Andrea
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - Previous studies on measles revealed the importance of different mechanisms like external imports in disease free lands, seasonal forcing, or stochastic amplification in order to explain the dynamics observed in available datasets. We explore the relative importance of these mechanisms using a detailed geographical description of human mobility. We show the results of individual based simulations of a SIR and a SEIR model considering a gridded description of human settlements in the British Isles. Human mobility between different grid units is described by the radiation model [1]. We show that as the level of mobility is modified, the dynamics are described by multiannual, annual or biennial cycles.
AB - Previous studies on measles revealed the importance of different mechanisms like external imports in disease free lands, seasonal forcing, or stochastic amplification in order to explain the dynamics observed in available datasets. We explore the relative importance of these mechanisms using a detailed geographical description of human mobility. We show the results of individual based simulations of a SIR and a SEIR model considering a gridded description of human settlements in the British Isles. Human mobility between different grid units is described by the radiation model [1]. We show that as the level of mobility is modified, the dynamics are described by multiannual, annual or biennial cycles.
M3 - Conference contribution/Paper
BT - Proceedings of the 14th Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2014
ER -