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Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

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Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]. / Eyre, Max T.; Burns, Rachel; Kirkby, Victoria; Smith, Catherine; Denaxas, Spiros; Nguyen, Vincent; Hayward, Andrew; Shallcross, Laura; Fragaszy, Ellen; Aldridge, Robert W.

In: Wellcome Open Research, 25.01.2021.

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Eyre, M. T., Burns, R., Kirkby, V., Smith, C., Denaxas, S., Nguyen, V., Hayward, A., Shallcross, L., Fragaszy, E., & Aldridge, R. W. (2021). Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]. Wellcome Open Research. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16304.1

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Eyre, Max T. ; Burns, Rachel ; Kirkby, Victoria ; Smith, Catherine ; Denaxas, Spiros ; Nguyen, Vincent ; Hayward, Andrew ; Shallcross, Laura ; Fragaszy, Ellen ; Aldridge, Robert W. / Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]. In: Wellcome Open Research. 2021.

Bibtex

@article{c688b911d2754b80bf980f561057f71f,
title = "Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]",
abstract = "Background: Diagnostic testing forms a major part of the UK{\textquoteright}s response to the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with tests offered to anyone with a continuous cough, high temperature or anosmia. Testing capacity must be sufficient during the winter respiratory season when levels of cough and fever are high due to non-COVID-19 causes. This study aims to make predictions about the contribution of baseline cough or fever to future testing demand in the UK.Methods: In this analysis of the Bug Watch prospective community cohort study, we estimated the incidence of cough or fever in England in 2018-2019. We then estimated the COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates required in the UK for baseline cough or fever cases for the period July 2020-June 2021. This was explored for different rates of the population requesting tests and four COVID-19 second wave scenarios. Estimates were then compared to current national capacity.Results: The baseline incidence of cough or fever in the UK is expected to rise rapidly from 154,554 (95%CI 103,083 - 231,725) cases per day in August 2020 to 250,708 (95%CI 181,095 - 347,080) in September, peaking at 444,660 (95%CI 353,084 - 559,988) in December. If 80% of baseline cough or fever cases request tests, average daily UK testing demand would exceed current capacity for five consecutive months (October 2020 to February 2021), with a peak demand of 147,240 (95%CI 73,978 - 239,502) tests per day above capacity in December 2020.Conclusions: Our results show that current national COVID-19 testing capacity is likely to be exceeded by demand due to baseline cough and fever alone. This study highlights that the UK{\textquoteright}s response to the COVID-19 pandemic must ensure that a high proportion of people with symptoms request tests, and that testing capacity is immediately scaled up to meet this high predicted demand.",
keywords = "COVID-19, cough, fever, diagnostic testing capacity, United Kingdom, swab test",
author = "Eyre, {Max T.} and Rachel Burns and Victoria Kirkby and Catherine Smith and Spiros Denaxas and Vincent Nguyen and Andrew Hayward and Laura Shallcross and Ellen Fragaszy and Aldridge, {Robert W.}",
year = "2021",
month = jan,
day = "25",
doi = "10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16304.1",
language = "English",
journal = "Wellcome Open Research",
issn = "2398-502X",
publisher = "F1000 Research Ltd.",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

AU - Eyre, Max T.

AU - Burns, Rachel

AU - Kirkby, Victoria

AU - Smith, Catherine

AU - Denaxas, Spiros

AU - Nguyen, Vincent

AU - Hayward, Andrew

AU - Shallcross, Laura

AU - Fragaszy, Ellen

AU - Aldridge, Robert W.

PY - 2021/1/25

Y1 - 2021/1/25

N2 - Background: Diagnostic testing forms a major part of the UK’s response to the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with tests offered to anyone with a continuous cough, high temperature or anosmia. Testing capacity must be sufficient during the winter respiratory season when levels of cough and fever are high due to non-COVID-19 causes. This study aims to make predictions about the contribution of baseline cough or fever to future testing demand in the UK.Methods: In this analysis of the Bug Watch prospective community cohort study, we estimated the incidence of cough or fever in England in 2018-2019. We then estimated the COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates required in the UK for baseline cough or fever cases for the period July 2020-June 2021. This was explored for different rates of the population requesting tests and four COVID-19 second wave scenarios. Estimates were then compared to current national capacity.Results: The baseline incidence of cough or fever in the UK is expected to rise rapidly from 154,554 (95%CI 103,083 - 231,725) cases per day in August 2020 to 250,708 (95%CI 181,095 - 347,080) in September, peaking at 444,660 (95%CI 353,084 - 559,988) in December. If 80% of baseline cough or fever cases request tests, average daily UK testing demand would exceed current capacity for five consecutive months (October 2020 to February 2021), with a peak demand of 147,240 (95%CI 73,978 - 239,502) tests per day above capacity in December 2020.Conclusions: Our results show that current national COVID-19 testing capacity is likely to be exceeded by demand due to baseline cough and fever alone. This study highlights that the UK’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic must ensure that a high proportion of people with symptoms request tests, and that testing capacity is immediately scaled up to meet this high predicted demand.

AB - Background: Diagnostic testing forms a major part of the UK’s response to the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with tests offered to anyone with a continuous cough, high temperature or anosmia. Testing capacity must be sufficient during the winter respiratory season when levels of cough and fever are high due to non-COVID-19 causes. This study aims to make predictions about the contribution of baseline cough or fever to future testing demand in the UK.Methods: In this analysis of the Bug Watch prospective community cohort study, we estimated the incidence of cough or fever in England in 2018-2019. We then estimated the COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates required in the UK for baseline cough or fever cases for the period July 2020-June 2021. This was explored for different rates of the population requesting tests and four COVID-19 second wave scenarios. Estimates were then compared to current national capacity.Results: The baseline incidence of cough or fever in the UK is expected to rise rapidly from 154,554 (95%CI 103,083 - 231,725) cases per day in August 2020 to 250,708 (95%CI 181,095 - 347,080) in September, peaking at 444,660 (95%CI 353,084 - 559,988) in December. If 80% of baseline cough or fever cases request tests, average daily UK testing demand would exceed current capacity for five consecutive months (October 2020 to February 2021), with a peak demand of 147,240 (95%CI 73,978 - 239,502) tests per day above capacity in December 2020.Conclusions: Our results show that current national COVID-19 testing capacity is likely to be exceeded by demand due to baseline cough and fever alone. This study highlights that the UK’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic must ensure that a high proportion of people with symptoms request tests, and that testing capacity is immediately scaled up to meet this high predicted demand.

KW - COVID-19

KW - cough

KW - fever

KW - diagnostic testing capacity

KW - United Kingdom

KW - swab test

U2 - 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16304.1

DO - 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16304.1

M3 - Journal article

JO - Wellcome Open Research

JF - Wellcome Open Research

SN - 2398-502X

ER -