Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Impact of human mobility on the periodicities and mechanisms underlying measles dynamics
AU - Marguta, Ramona
AU - Parisi, Andrea
N1 - © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
PY - 2015/3/6
Y1 - 2015/3/6
N2 - Three main mechanisms determining the dynamics of measles have been described in the literature: invasion in disease-free lands leading to import-dependent outbreaks, switching between annual and biennial attractors driven by seasonality, and amplification of stochastic fluctuations close to the endemic equilibrium. Here, we study the importance of the three mechanisms using a detailed geographical description of human mobility. We perform individual-based simulations of an SIR model using a gridded description of human settlements on top of which we implement human mobility according to the radiation model. Parallel computation permits detailed simulations of large areas. Focusing our research on the British Isles, we show that human mobility has an impact on the periodicity of measles outbreaks. Depending on the level of mobility, we observe at the global level multi-annual, annual or biennial cycles. The periodicity observed globally, however, differs from the local epidemic cycles: different locations show different mechanisms at work depending on both population size and mobility. As a result, the periodicities observed locally depend on the interplay between the local population size and human mobility.
AB - Three main mechanisms determining the dynamics of measles have been described in the literature: invasion in disease-free lands leading to import-dependent outbreaks, switching between annual and biennial attractors driven by seasonality, and amplification of stochastic fluctuations close to the endemic equilibrium. Here, we study the importance of the three mechanisms using a detailed geographical description of human mobility. We perform individual-based simulations of an SIR model using a gridded description of human settlements on top of which we implement human mobility according to the radiation model. Parallel computation permits detailed simulations of large areas. Focusing our research on the British Isles, we show that human mobility has an impact on the periodicity of measles outbreaks. Depending on the level of mobility, we observe at the global level multi-annual, annual or biennial cycles. The periodicity observed globally, however, differs from the local epidemic cycles: different locations show different mechanisms at work depending on both population size and mobility. As a result, the periodicities observed locally depend on the interplay between the local population size and human mobility.
KW - Communicable Diseases
KW - Computer Simulation
KW - Disease Outbreaks
KW - Emigration and Immigration
KW - Epidemics
KW - Geography
KW - Humans
KW - Measles
KW - Periodicity
KW - Population Density
KW - Seasons
KW - Software
KW - Stochastic Processes
KW - United Kingdom
KW - Journal Article
KW - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
U2 - 10.1098/rsif.2014.1317
DO - 10.1098/rsif.2014.1317
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 25673302
VL - 12
JO - Interface
JF - Interface
SN - 1742-5689
IS - 104
M1 - 20141317
ER -