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Incorporating existing thermal tolerance into projections of compositional turnover under climate change

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Incorporating existing thermal tolerance into projections of compositional turnover under climate change. / Bush, Alex; Catullo, Renee; Mokany, Karel et al.
In: Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 28, No. 6, 01.06.2019, p. 851-861.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Bush, A, Catullo, R, Mokany, K, Harwood, T, Hoskins, AJ & Ferrier, S 2019, 'Incorporating existing thermal tolerance into projections of compositional turnover under climate change', Global Ecology and Biogeography, vol. 28, no. 6, pp. 851-861. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12898

APA

Bush, A., Catullo, R., Mokany, K., Harwood, T., Hoskins, A. J., & Ferrier, S. (2019). Incorporating existing thermal tolerance into projections of compositional turnover under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 28(6), 851-861. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12898

Vancouver

Bush A, Catullo R, Mokany K, Harwood T, Hoskins AJ, Ferrier S. Incorporating existing thermal tolerance into projections of compositional turnover under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2019 Jun 1;28(6):851-861. Epub 2019 Feb 14. doi: 10.1111/geb.12898

Author

Bush, Alex ; Catullo, Renee ; Mokany, Karel et al. / Incorporating existing thermal tolerance into projections of compositional turnover under climate change. In: Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2019 ; Vol. 28, No. 6. pp. 851-861.

Bibtex

@article{f87b1ed7201648b1b35093956454fa17,
title = "Incorporating existing thermal tolerance into projections of compositional turnover under climate change",
abstract = "Aim: Observed, realized niche space often underestimates species{\textquoteright} physiological tolerances due to interactions with other species, dispersal constraints, and because some combinations of influential environmental factors do not currently exist in the real world. Conversely, correlative ecological niche models rely on the assumption that the range of environmental conditions encompassed by a species{\textquoteright} geographic distribution accurately reflects their environmental tolerances, including community-level approaches like generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM). We extend GDM to better understand what effect broader environmental tolerances could have on compositional turnover under climate change. Innovation: We show how GDM can be adjusted as a function of best-available estimates of the average ratio between realized and potential niche widths to modify projected temporal turnover. We demonstrate this approach by using the estimated niche ratios of Australian plant species (n = 7,184) relative to thermal extremes, and the rate at which this ratio varied with temperature. The modified GDMs showed existing thermal tolerance could reduce the turnover predicted by standard models under climate change by up to 11%. We further show how the reduction in expected turnover by 2090 will influence where a greater proportion of the current community will persist in a region. Main conclusions: We suggest that standard spatial GDMs and their modified versions represent the extremes of ecological niche perspectives (i.e., realized and potential) and the range of tolerance communities may have when responding to environmental change. GDM projections therefore identify the range of uncertainty associated with a critical model assumption, and as climate change continues, ongoing community monitoring could be used to validate the balance between the two possibilities.",
keywords = "climate change, compositional turnover, existing thermal tolerance, fundamental niche, generalized dissimilarity models, macroecological modelling, niche truncation, realized niche, species distribution model",
author = "Alex Bush and Renee Catullo and Karel Mokany and Tom Harwood and Hoskins, {Andrew J.} and Simon Ferrier",
year = "2019",
month = jun,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1111/geb.12898",
language = "English",
volume = "28",
pages = "851--861",
journal = "Global Ecology and Biogeography",
issn = "1466-822X",
publisher = "Blackwell Publishing Ltd",
number = "6",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Incorporating existing thermal tolerance into projections of compositional turnover under climate change

AU - Bush, Alex

AU - Catullo, Renee

AU - Mokany, Karel

AU - Harwood, Tom

AU - Hoskins, Andrew J.

AU - Ferrier, Simon

PY - 2019/6/1

Y1 - 2019/6/1

N2 - Aim: Observed, realized niche space often underestimates species’ physiological tolerances due to interactions with other species, dispersal constraints, and because some combinations of influential environmental factors do not currently exist in the real world. Conversely, correlative ecological niche models rely on the assumption that the range of environmental conditions encompassed by a species’ geographic distribution accurately reflects their environmental tolerances, including community-level approaches like generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM). We extend GDM to better understand what effect broader environmental tolerances could have on compositional turnover under climate change. Innovation: We show how GDM can be adjusted as a function of best-available estimates of the average ratio between realized and potential niche widths to modify projected temporal turnover. We demonstrate this approach by using the estimated niche ratios of Australian plant species (n = 7,184) relative to thermal extremes, and the rate at which this ratio varied with temperature. The modified GDMs showed existing thermal tolerance could reduce the turnover predicted by standard models under climate change by up to 11%. We further show how the reduction in expected turnover by 2090 will influence where a greater proportion of the current community will persist in a region. Main conclusions: We suggest that standard spatial GDMs and their modified versions represent the extremes of ecological niche perspectives (i.e., realized and potential) and the range of tolerance communities may have when responding to environmental change. GDM projections therefore identify the range of uncertainty associated with a critical model assumption, and as climate change continues, ongoing community monitoring could be used to validate the balance between the two possibilities.

AB - Aim: Observed, realized niche space often underestimates species’ physiological tolerances due to interactions with other species, dispersal constraints, and because some combinations of influential environmental factors do not currently exist in the real world. Conversely, correlative ecological niche models rely on the assumption that the range of environmental conditions encompassed by a species’ geographic distribution accurately reflects their environmental tolerances, including community-level approaches like generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM). We extend GDM to better understand what effect broader environmental tolerances could have on compositional turnover under climate change. Innovation: We show how GDM can be adjusted as a function of best-available estimates of the average ratio between realized and potential niche widths to modify projected temporal turnover. We demonstrate this approach by using the estimated niche ratios of Australian plant species (n = 7,184) relative to thermal extremes, and the rate at which this ratio varied with temperature. The modified GDMs showed existing thermal tolerance could reduce the turnover predicted by standard models under climate change by up to 11%. We further show how the reduction in expected turnover by 2090 will influence where a greater proportion of the current community will persist in a region. Main conclusions: We suggest that standard spatial GDMs and their modified versions represent the extremes of ecological niche perspectives (i.e., realized and potential) and the range of tolerance communities may have when responding to environmental change. GDM projections therefore identify the range of uncertainty associated with a critical model assumption, and as climate change continues, ongoing community monitoring could be used to validate the balance between the two possibilities.

KW - climate change

KW - compositional turnover

KW - existing thermal tolerance

KW - fundamental niche

KW - generalized dissimilarity models

KW - macroecological modelling

KW - niche truncation

KW - realized niche

KW - species distribution model

U2 - 10.1111/geb.12898

DO - 10.1111/geb.12898

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85061595225

VL - 28

SP - 851

EP - 861

JO - Global Ecology and Biogeography

JF - Global Ecology and Biogeography

SN - 1466-822X

IS - 6

ER -