Final published version
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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Integrating snake distribution, abundance and expert‐derived behavioural traits predicts snakebite risk
AU - Martín, Gerardo
AU - Erinjery, Joseph
AU - Gumbs, Rikki
AU - Somaweera, Ruchira
AU - Ediriweera, Dileepa
AU - Diggle, Peter J.
AU - Kasturiratne, Anuradhani
AU - de Silva, Hithanadura J.
AU - Lalloo, David G.
AU - Iwamura, Takuya
AU - Murray, Kris A.
PY - 2022/2/28
Y1 - 2022/2/28
N2 - Abstract: Despite important implications for human health, distribution, abundance and behaviour of most medically relevant snakes remain poorly understood. Such data deficiencies hamper efforts to characterise the causal pathways of snakebite envenoming and to prioritise management options in the areas at greatest risk. We estimated the spatial patterns of abundance of seven medically relevant snake species from Sri Lanka, a snakebite hotspot, and combined them with indices of species' relative abundance, aggressiveness and envenoming severity obtained from an expert opinion survey, to test whether these fundamental ecological traits could explain spatial patterns of snakebite and envenoming incidence. The spatial intensity of snake occurrence records in relation to independent environmental factors (fundamental niches and land cover) was analysed with point process models. Then, with the estimated patterns of abundance, we tested which species' abundances added together, with and without weightings for aggressiveness, envenoming severity and relative abundance, best correlate with per capita geographic incidence patterns of snakebite and envenoming. We found that weighting abundance patterns by species' traits increased correlation with incidence. The best performing combination had three species weighted by aggressiveness and abundance, with a correlation of r = 0.47 (p <0.01) with snakebite incidence. An envenoming severity and relative abundance‐weighted combination of two species was the most strongly associated with envenoming incidence (r = 0.46, p = 0). Synthesis and applications. We show that snakebite risk is explained by abundance, aggressiveness and envenoming severity of the snake species most frequently involved in envenoming cases. Incorporating causality via ecological information of key snake species is critical for snakebite risk mapping, helping to tailor preventive measures for dominant snake species and deploying the necessary antivenom therapies.
AB - Abstract: Despite important implications for human health, distribution, abundance and behaviour of most medically relevant snakes remain poorly understood. Such data deficiencies hamper efforts to characterise the causal pathways of snakebite envenoming and to prioritise management options in the areas at greatest risk. We estimated the spatial patterns of abundance of seven medically relevant snake species from Sri Lanka, a snakebite hotspot, and combined them with indices of species' relative abundance, aggressiveness and envenoming severity obtained from an expert opinion survey, to test whether these fundamental ecological traits could explain spatial patterns of snakebite and envenoming incidence. The spatial intensity of snake occurrence records in relation to independent environmental factors (fundamental niches and land cover) was analysed with point process models. Then, with the estimated patterns of abundance, we tested which species' abundances added together, with and without weightings for aggressiveness, envenoming severity and relative abundance, best correlate with per capita geographic incidence patterns of snakebite and envenoming. We found that weighting abundance patterns by species' traits increased correlation with incidence. The best performing combination had three species weighted by aggressiveness and abundance, with a correlation of r = 0.47 (p <0.01) with snakebite incidence. An envenoming severity and relative abundance‐weighted combination of two species was the most strongly associated with envenoming incidence (r = 0.46, p = 0). Synthesis and applications. We show that snakebite risk is explained by abundance, aggressiveness and envenoming severity of the snake species most frequently involved in envenoming cases. Incorporating causality via ecological information of key snake species is critical for snakebite risk mapping, helping to tailor preventive measures for dominant snake species and deploying the necessary antivenom therapies.
KW - Biodiversity ecology
KW - Community ecology
KW - Disease ecology
KW - Human ecology
KW - Population ecology
KW - Spatial ecology
KW - RESEARCH ARTICLE
KW - RESEARCH ARTICLES
KW - abundance
KW - aggressiveness
KW - fundamental niches
KW - neglected tropical diseases
KW - occurrence data
KW - point process models
KW - snakebite envenoming
U2 - 10.1111/1365-2664.14081
DO - 10.1111/1365-2664.14081
M3 - Journal article
VL - 59
SP - 611
EP - 623
JO - Journal of Applied Ecology
JF - Journal of Applied Ecology
SN - 0021-8901
IS - 2
ER -