TY - JOUR

T1 - Interacting impacts of hydrological changes and air temperature warming on lake temperatures highlight the potential for adaptive management

AU - Olsson, Freya

AU - Mackay, Eleanor B.

AU - Spears, Bryan M.

AU - Barker, Philip

AU - Jones, Ian D.

PY - 2025/3/1

Y1 - 2025/3/1

N2 - Globally, climate warming is increasing air temperatures and changing river flows, but few studies have explicitly considered the consequences for lake temperatures of these dual effects, or the potential to manage lake inflows to mitigate climate warming impacts. Using a one-dimensional model, we tested the sensitivity of lake temperatures to the separate and interacting effects of changes in air temperature and inflow on a small, short-residence time (annual average ≈ 20 days), temperate lake. Reducing inflow by 70% increased summer lake surface temperatures 1.0–1.2 °C and water column stability by 11–19%, equivalent to the effect of 1.2 °C air temperature warming. Conversely, similar increases in inflow could result in lake summer cooling, sufficient to mitigate 0.75 °C air temperature rise, increasing to more than 1.1 °C if inflow temperature does not rise. We discuss how altering lake inflow volume and temperature could be added to the suite of adaptation measures for lakes.

AB - Globally, climate warming is increasing air temperatures and changing river flows, but few studies have explicitly considered the consequences for lake temperatures of these dual effects, or the potential to manage lake inflows to mitigate climate warming impacts. Using a one-dimensional model, we tested the sensitivity of lake temperatures to the separate and interacting effects of changes in air temperature and inflow on a small, short-residence time (annual average ≈ 20 days), temperate lake. Reducing inflow by 70% increased summer lake surface temperatures 1.0–1.2 °C and water column stability by 11–19%, equivalent to the effect of 1.2 °C air temperature warming. Conversely, similar increases in inflow could result in lake summer cooling, sufficient to mitigate 0.75 °C air temperature rise, increasing to more than 1.1 °C if inflow temperature does not rise. We discuss how altering lake inflow volume and temperature could be added to the suite of adaptation measures for lakes.

KW - Climate change

KW - Climate mitigation

KW - GOTM

KW - Lake hydrodynamic modelling

KW - Lake temperatures

KW - River flow

U2 - 10.1007/s13280-024-02015-6

DO - 10.1007/s13280-024-02015-6

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 38795283

VL - 54

SP - 402

EP - 415

JO - Ambio

JF - Ambio

SN - 0044-7447

IS - 3

ER -