Rights statement: © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Final published version, 624 KB, PDF document
Available under license: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan
AU - Maystadt, Jean-Francois
AU - Calderone, Margherita
AU - You, Liangzhi
N1 - © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
PY - 2015/5
Y1 - 2015/5
N2 - Our article contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflicts by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict, whereas the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 24–31% in the future under a median scenario. Our analysis also sheds light on the competition over natural resources, in particular water, as the main driver of such relationship in a region where pastoralism constitutes the dominant livelihood.
AB - Our article contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflicts by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict, whereas the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 24–31% in the future under a median scenario. Our analysis also sheds light on the competition over natural resources, in particular water, as the main driver of such relationship in a region where pastoralism constitutes the dominant livelihood.
KW - Weather shocks
KW - violent conflict
KW - Sudan
KW - disaggregated spatial analysis
KW - pastoralism
U2 - 10.1093/jeg/lbu033
DO - 10.1093/jeg/lbu033
M3 - Journal article
VL - 15
SP - 649
EP - 671
JO - Journal of Economic Geography
JF - Journal of Economic Geography
SN - 1468-2702
IS - 3
ER -